Why were Witches women?

For over three centuries, early modern Europe was largely dominated by witchcraft persecutions, the scale of which such atrocities had never been witnessed before. These persecutions arose from various significant instabilities of the times. Tens of thousands of executions were carried out, especially within Central Europe and the vast majority of deaths were attributed to women. This is what was most remarkable about this period; the fact that so many women were recognised as practitioners of witchcraft. I shall be closely following the reasons for such large-scale prosecutions within the early modern period. In particular, I shall be looking at the different sub-categories concerning reasons for such a rise in the nature of witch prosecutions. These categories will be broken up as follows; the Church's view on maleficia, whom the witches were, the effect society had on the arrival of witchcraft, literature's perspective, natural thought and freethinking, and the confessions of witches. The Church was integral to the whole belief system within modern day Europe and was the main, driving component for social, economic and religious conformity. However, the Catholic Church as a unit had been threatened through ‘The Reformation' and theological perceptions and ideas were changing. People's interpretations and prior beliefs were now being challenged, criticised and there was now total religious uncertainty and unbalance within society. ‘This consequently led to the powerful ‘Counter Reformation' in which the Catholic Church began an attempt to not only counter the Protestant Reformation, but also to eliminate corruption, educate clergy and inspire faith in the common people'- (B. P. Levack, 1995). The combination of these two ecclesiastical revolutions induced the inevitable religious disorder, which in turn would spur the rise and development of more numerous and more extreme witch-hunts. In addition, these two reformed religions placed a renewed importance upon individual morals. ‘This issued many with the desire to place the burden of sins upon someone else, and in effect to acquire a scapegoat'- (B. P. Levack, 1995). Throughout history, such scapegoats have generally been the rejects of society, the loners, the sick, and the poor. This age was no different and in their search for a victim, someone to hold responsible, they found the witches. This period of great religious, social and economic transformation combined with the prevalence of epidemics and natural disasters now had a target on whom to lay all the blame upon; a physical embodiment of the evil that had been endured. Furthermore, as well as Martin Luther and Jean Calvin highlighting and condoning the burning of witches as ‘whores of Satan', the Church as a whole was responsible for accepting witchcraft as part of society, essentially forming the moral backing needed for such large-scale atrocities. So then, in 1485 the Catholic inquisition authorities published ‘Malleus Maleficarum'. This was essentially a book, confirming women as those responsible for witchcraft, as those capable of evil and temptation. ‘Women are by nature instruments of Satan†¦ they are by nature carnal, a structural defect rooted in the original creation' The bible also condemned witchcraft, or so people thought. Within Exodus 22:18 it orders, â€Å"Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live†. It is then this mixture of Church and theological backing that gave the people of Europe the authority to act upon the ‘witches' within society, and to destroy anyone suspected of witchcraft. ‘It is interesting to note then that this period of witch-hunting was most intense within Germany, Switzerland, Poland, and Scotland, where the countries were religiously heterogeneous'- (G. Geis, 1997), comprising a mix of numerous Protestant and Catholic believers. Moreover, the witch-hunts themselves have long been seen as part of a ‘war against women', conducted overwhelmingly by men and particularly, by those in authority. Infact, Deborah Willis notes that â€Å"more polemical† feminist accounts â€Å"are likely to portray the witch as a heroic protofeminist resisting patriarchal oppression and a wholly innocent victim of a male-authored reign of terror designed to keep women in their place. † – (D. Willis, 1995, in web page). Holistically speaking, the Church's contribution to witchcraft fears and prosecutions led to the general belief within society that demons actively interfered upon the Earth and that witches were hugely prevalent concerning the interactions with and/or the dealings with such forces upon the Earth. In general, there was a greatly intensified and invigorated belief in the supernatural. For those who did not believe in such ideas, it still remained a plausible and effective tool for shifting the blame onto the women within society. It is now important to fully recognise whom these witches were and to discern the types of women victimised for such ‘crimes against humanity'. In general, it was the women from the lower sections of society who were seen as those who had the opportunity to commit harmful acts. Those who were widows and so were therefore able to conceal things and to hide within the cloak of darkness; to practice their magic and to meet with their familiars and even with the Devil himself, were often susceptible to prosecutions. In addition, these women were seen as ‘vessels of nature' and much closer to the environment and conditions of nature than men, and so more able to dominate the elements. The number of unmarried women was also increasing and this was another cause for fear within society. These women were considered a burden on society. The other group vulnerable to witchcraft accusations were midwives. One of the ostensible practices of witches was the execution and cannibalism of infants, especially those who had not yet been baptised into the Christian faith. Therefore, it is of no surprise that this particular group was especially focused upon in terms of prosecutions. It was essentially a way for grieving families to be able to lay blame upon the midwife for the death of their child, particularly within times of increasing infant mortality and occasional infanticide. The general view however was that witches were often cited as those ‘outsiders of society', reliant upon community relief and benefits, draining the land of it's wealth. Additionally, women were often cited with sorcery because of their traditional roles as cooks, nurses, midwives and keepers of the home. Witches were often associated as those who were in league with the Devil and as those who would meet at ‘Sabbats' to create spells, curses, practice killings and take part in lewd sexual acts with one another and with Satan himself. Single women were particularly focused upon for prosecutions concerning sexual abominations, as they were seen as more easily seductable and by far more sexual by nature. Indeed, the fact that the Devil was depicted as being the very form of a man highly extenuated the belief that women did take part in such acts. Society also saw women as being weaker in every sense of the word. They did not have the political power or physical capabilities to defend themselves. Therefore, they were thought to use magic to defend themselves and additionally make pacts with the Devil to achieve various things against their enemies. However, ‘the great witch hunts of the medieval period were long depicted as a ‘war against women', conducted mainly by men, especially those in central authority' (Willis, Malevolent Nurture, p. 12). The reason for this was ostensibly that men wanted to keep women in their rightful place within society, largely pacified and subdued. This came with the great fear of feminist accounts, which started to take place within this period. The subject of women projected as witches was widely held in belief within local communities and often formed the deciding factor in disputes within local communities. So if a particular person has had a bad harvest, or their child has dies in the night, the climate of Early Modern Europe was conducive to such accusations and provided the ammunition with which to prosecute. The times of the period were one of extreme economic turbulence and poverty. Across Western Europe in particular, the gulf between the rich and poor was consistently growing and there was a general decline also in the living standards of much of Europe. These conditions may however have persuaded people to contemplate using magic to help themselves and to achieve monetary or land gains, but on the other hand, it also maintained that accusations would be at a new high. Below is a table showing the relevance of monetary/land/food disputes within local communities and the effect being a widow within society would have concerning such disputes and jealousies in Essex, 1564-89: Kinship Relationships Husband and Wife * 4 Unspecified Quarrels (2) Sexual Jealousy (1) Broken Marriage Contract (1) Stepfather and Stepchild 1 Over Inheritance Grandmother and Grandchild 1 Obligation to collect wood Total 6 Neighbourly Relationships * (Object of dispute) * Food/Drink * 12 Animals 4 Money * 8 Implements 4 Unspecified loans 3 Boundaries/Land * 4 Children 3 Total 48 The difference shown in number between kinship quarrels and disputes within the community is substantial. It demonstrates the heightened debates and tension with local communities and supports the view that widows were particularly attacked within these times as defenceless, unimportant people of the community. Another crucial part of women being persecuted as witches, developed through another mind controlling and prevalent technique within this time period. This was the use of literature, so covering everything from the bible and Church readings to pamphlets and novels written within the time. It is not surprising that the ‘Malleus maleficarum' had such an influential effect upon the rise of women as victims of mass witch prosecutions. Shakespeare also wrote within this time period and included a wide range of texts, often shadowing events and topics within Europe at the time. One of the key texts he wrote was that of ‘Macbeth', where Macbeth and his wife gradually murder various people in line to the succession of Kingship for their own gratuitous ends. The central factor towards their warped ideals and evil dealings was that of the witches within the moors. These of course were depicted purely as women, with similar characteristics to those generally seen as witches within this same period. The very fact that Lady Macbeth had to effectively become a man and get rid of her female characteristics in order to succeed, parallels the social view of women within this time and further extenuates the likelihood of women as victims. Indeed, it is the prophecies of the witches that initiate the murder, corruption, greed and lies that manifest with Macbeth. The famous line of ‘is that a dagger I see before me' spoken by that of Macbeth represents the conjuring of illusionary magic, produced by the witches of the time. Furthermore, the witches and his wife are inextricably linked together, in that they both influence Macbeth, and so the social view of women being manipulative, a natural temptation (as referred to in the Malleus maleficarum), a necessary evil etc is evidently shown within the literature of the time. The Catholic Church concentrated specifically upon the natural sin and evil within the individual and as mentioned previously, people saw the ‘witches' as scapegoats, a group to blame for their sinful nature. The bible in particular was another greatly recognised and taught book within society and the very story of creation within Genesis demonstrates the sinful, easily tempted and generally weak nature of women. Also, within Revelation (the concluding chapter of the Bible), the sinful woman of ‘Babylon†¦ he Great Prostitute', was also another indication of the weakness of women and showed this to be the case from the very beginning of creation to the very end. In general, the people of Europe saw the massacre of the ‘witches' as a religious war of enacting justice on those directly against the will of God. One notion spread throughout literature was that of witches contacting and serving Diana, the ‘Goddess of the Moon'. Women were hence seen as the most likely persons to communicate with ‘Diana' as a league of women joined together. Some confessed to actually riding with Diana and taking part in various activities, however they were later recognised to be delusional. Overall, the introduction of the printing press and the generally increasing availability of literature to the masses, allowed for more rapid transfers of elite beliefs in witchcraft and especially women as active participants. The trials of women within this period serve to reinforce and validate the beliefs transmitted through popular literature. One of the most confusing and baffling aspects of the ‘women as witches' theme is that many actually confessed to charges against them. This of course did not help the assumption that ‘women were witches' and served to just heighten the prosecutions and fuel the killings. Many ‘witches' claimed that their experiences had been worthwhile and showed virtually no remorse whatsoever for their supposed actions. This was the case all over Europe and not just England, even though the killings were much more prevalent and torture much more extreme on the continent than in England. However, P. Levack described this fact as less surprising when various other considerations were taken into account. Such as the ‘women often being brought up to believe that they were indeed instruments of Satan and that they were the only imperfection within God's creation' (P. B. Levack, 1995). This however was simply society's effort to instil such beliefs so as to relieve the worry of female independence and to of course resume the scapegoat it had found within the period in question. It is particularly interesting to note that many women actually testified against others within the community. They made up 43 % of witnesses against other women. Briggs' notices that ‘women were active in building up reputations through gossip, deploying counter-magic and accusing suspects' (Briggs, 1995). Women were completely surrounded by each sector of society and it was virtually impossible for them to escape punishment of some sort if they had first been accused of witchcraft. Ecclesiastically, the whole Church acknowledged the position of women as witches within society; and this simply gave the general public the opportunity to lay the blame for all the famine, disease, deaths and religious intolerance within previous years. The elite simply kept maintaining this strongly held belief in witchcraft and furthermore sustained the prosecutions and provided the literature and ethics with which to support these beliefs. What is key to this topic is that most prosecution cases actually refer directly to traditionally female aspects, such as the home, the kitchen, and the nursery; and on ‘culturally defined female tasks or occupations such as feeding (poisoning), child-rearing (infanticide), healing (harming), birth (death)' (Christina Hole, date unknown). Furthermore, women within society were very much pacified throughout this time and this meant that they were easy targets for attack. These poor victims of attack simply existed within a delicate age of uncertainty, confusion and anger. Society believed in the existence of witchcraft and in the exponents of maleficia, the women of the times. On a more local scale too, communities widely looked to the accusation of witchcraft as a means to a specific end, whether it concerned land disputes or money disputes etc. These were very testing times, times of extreme economic struggles and religious disputes. In conclusion, it is interesting to note that as standards of living vastly improved and religious irregularities disappeared, prosecutions decreased dramatically and people suddenly began to notice that most prosecutions were actually highly nonsensical and irrational. Society gradually came to accept that it had indeed made many mistakes.

Information and Communication Technology in the Philippines Essay

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become and will continue to be an integral part of the day-to-day life of every Filipino across all levels of our society. Information has always played a vital role in our history. Over the ages, people have used it to gain a more accurate picture of their current situation, make better decisions for the future, and improve the quality of their lives. But never has information been more accessible and more widespread than it is today. The latest improvements in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) have been impressive. Computers are progressively becoming smaller, more affordable, and more powerful. They are capable of storing an almost vast amount of data and information. And they are interconnected through telephone lines, satellites, and fiber-optic cables that span across the world, allowing the ability to communicate and share information with one another across borders. The pervasiveness of communication technology around the world necessitates that government embark on a cohesive and coordinated strategy on how to prepare its citizens to survive, live and thrive in a digital world. The world is experiencing a digital revolution and the Philippines have the opportunity to play an enormous role in it. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is an important part in the country’s development. Opportunities abound with the help of ICT. The current ICT master plan for the Philippines dates back to 2006. With all of the new developments in this highly dynamic field, there is clearly a need to develop a new blueprint on how the country and its people can benefit from the use of ICT in governance, our economy and improving one’s way of life. The Philippines positions itself at the forefront of the digital revolution – dynamic and in command of the future. ICT is used extensively in the delivery of career information and guidance. Such usage covers wide range of applications. The role of ICT in guidance can be seen in three ways: as a tool, as an alternative, or as an agent of change. The growth of websites and helplines as forms of technically mediated service delivery means that the potential of ICT as a change agent is now greater than ever before. Current business-command the optimization of ICT usage to support national objectives of becoming a high income developed country. Thus as an enable, ICT in public sector must be addressed in general manner including people, process and technology where internal and external needs must be taken into place. The ICT evolution will take place with or without a systematic, comprehensive and articulated policy. However, the lack of a coherent policy is likely to contribute to the development (or prolonged existence) of ineffective infrastructure and a waste of resources. The importance of ICT policies is understood at the highest political level in many developing countries, and some countries have already adopted their own policies. The effectiveness of an ICT policy in one country does not guarantee that the same method would work in another and many developing countries face similar constraints that need to be taken into account when ICT policies are formulated. Philippines’ ICT against Other Countries ICT Development Current trends the world over the pointed to the fact that the major developments in the information economy. It resulted in revolutionizing the way people communicate and for the governments and firms to interact and conduct business. The presence of a reliable, accessible and affordable Philippine Information and communications infrastructure is a necessary condition for our participation in the information economy. Without it, our country will once again face the prospect of being marginalized in the global economy. The next part of this case study will discuss a brief ICT’s plan and current situation of our 3 neighboring countries; Singapore One of the key drivers of the Singapore’s Economic growth is their ICT. The island state is well connected via both fixed and wireless networks. By early 2012, their mobile penetration has passed 150%. By maintaining Singapore’s status as an ICT market leader, the government launched its plan for a nationwide fibre-based broadband network known as the Next Generation Broadband Network (NGNBN) and this is being rolled out in line with the government’s strategy. Hong Kong The world’s freest economy, characterized by free trade, free market and free flow of capital with stable and freely convertible currency and no foreign exchange controls. Their ICT development, the free flow of information with no censorship on content transmission provided a good environment for the development of web-based businesses such as content and media and cloud computing. In the next few years’ government will increasingly adopt cloud-based services. Such initiative will spawn opportunities for vendors and providers. Their telecommunications infrastructure is one of the most sophisticated in the world, with a wide range of innovative and advance services available in relatively low prices. The country also ensure the online secure. Hong Kong Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Centre (HKCERT) was set up to coordinate responses to computer security incident, promote information security and take preventive measures against Internet Security threats. Malaysia Malaysia’s national transformation agenda envisions an innovative citizen-centric model of public service delivery accordance with the country’s principles. This is undertaken in tandem with a bold economic transformation approach to propel their countries in to a high-income economy by 2020. The effective utilization and application of information and communications technology (ICT) across multi-faceted service delivery of internal and government operations. The developments of country’s future where the ICT implementation comprise a suite of service offerings and infrastructure development that support a fundamental shift towards a collaborative and co-operative arrangement of open consultation, open data, shared knowledge and expertise. The Malaysian Public Sector ICT Strategic Plan (2011-2015) provides the blueprint to accelerate the innovative utilization and development of ICT in readiness for the ever-changing service landscape facing their public sector. Is it our country really prepared for this to compete with our neighboring countries? Can we level up our ICT sector with them? How ready is our country to harness the fast phase and benefits of information and communications technology? Our country’s main department about ICT related issues is the ICTO (Information and Communications Technology Office) which is under the Department of Science and Technology which is the former Commission on Information and Communications Technology (ICT). The ICTO’s primary thrusts for 2011-2016 are in the areas of ICT Industry Development, E-government, ICT Policy Development, ICT infrastructure and Cyber security. As designated organization by our government ICTO will ensure the development and implementation of comprehensive program to sustained the growth and comprehensiveness of ICT industries segments and firms; formulate an integrated program to support the growth of the ICT industry in the regions; undertake the development of an industry-relevant curriculum in coordination with the industry, government and academe to enhance the competitiveness of the ICT workforce, formulate, recommend and implement a comprehensive and harmonized ICT promotions and advocacy programs. Facilitating ICTO’s mandate in formulation ICT policies, implementing ICT plans and programs, leading international ICT cooperation bodies, and other related functions is the ICT Governance Policy and Planning group, which take lead in multi-stakeholder policy development. Primary initiatives for the policy and planning includes; National Connectivity and Broadband Development Plan, Philippine Digital Strategy (PDS) Implementation Plan, Cyber security and Data Privacy, ICT Procurement Standards, Digital TV Migration, ICT Standardization and the Philippine ICT statistics Portal. Ensuring that ICT access and Internet opportunities are available for the entire country is made possible by the development of effective and sustainable and strategic ICT infrastructure. The ICT infrastructure Group through its various programs ensures that these connectivity requirements are met in an efficient and effective manner. These projects include the TV White Space Initiatives (TVWS), Government Fiber Core Network, Upgrade of National Microwave Network, Cloud Top e-Learning for Public Schools and Internet TV Testbed. With all the documents presented our country’s policies regarding in boosting our ICT development and infrastructure are impressive. But only question is that, is there will be enough budget that the government will provide to sustain these developments? We might left behind in many aspects with our neighboring countries in terms of ICT development but we can still move forward and have these implemented with the right manpower, policy and full support from our government and private sector as well. Recommendation for ICT Development We are all contributors to the development of the global economy. Globalization, which is made possible by the ICT revolution, has extremely changed the rules of the development of it. Efficiency more than ever is now an indicator of competitiveness to achieve our nations goals. Nations, corporations and people that find the means to become more efficient will advance and prosper. We all know that in our country ICT will be one of the major drivers for boosting economy, and as a critical tool for better governance, corporate performance and individual achievement as a Filipino. Our government’s should provide an enabling policy, legal and regulatory environment for the ICT development. This means that our government should act as a facilitator and its involvement should be predictable, developmental, transparent and efficient. With more transparency in government operations and diminishing corruption by placing more government data in the public domain using the Internet, thus increasing opportunities for public scrutiny. For government more improvement for ICT development they must build public trust, enhance citizen to participate in government projects and activities, improve government’s public services online, and improve country’s competitive ness thru more efficient government operations. Another factors that needs to give attention to our country’s ICT development are the private sectors, civic organizations and society, international organizations they the role and responsibility as well. There are some actions that need to implement in order for these organization to help on enhancing our ICT programs: * By providing knowledge tools and enhance capacity in industry sectors to take advantage the ICT. * Create an environment for job growth in ICT and ICT-enable job all over the country if possible. * Promote an environment that entices investments for ICT research, innovation, development & manufacturing In order to ensure the success and sustainability of ICT initiatives, investors should be enabled by ensuring their direct participation during its conceptualization, planning and implementation. These sectors have the role as well to provide investments, capitals and other resources. By this the project for the ICT sector will be higher change of success and sustainability if these are market-led, rather than government-led. Let us not also forget the LGUs, schools and other community organizations, they must be consulted and their specific requirements are determined. They as well have an active involvement to the operations in building the ICT of our country on their own respective area of jurisdiction. Many of us today use the Internet for a variety of reasons: e-mailing to connect with friends and family, for business and work correspondence, web-browsing for news, research and entertainment, and increasingly for richer media and applications, such as watching online TV, posting videos and photos, as well as creating Internet content through blogs and other interactive forum. Being able to use the Internet has become an important necessity to any social and work life. For many different reasons, there are also many Filipinos who are not able to access the benefits the Internet has to offer. Some cannot afford the Internet or computers; others do not know how to use the Internet; and there are parts of the country where there is no Internet service or even electricity available, such as in more rural areas. Not only is the possibility and ability to use the Internet important for individuals, but also for countries as a whole. In our globalized world, the connectedness and Internet capabilities of a country are important elements for its competitiveness. Developing the Internet, including to rural areas, leads to new opportunities for nonagricultural employment, better paying agricultural jobs and greater overall productivity. Access to the Internet also promotes small and microbusiness growth, allows people in remote areas to work from home, offers greater access to crop market prices and enables rural businesses perhaps to compete more successfully even in the world markets. As far as I can say creating Internet opportunities for all guarantees that the Philippines has an inclusive growth and helps eliminate poverty.

Amazon vs. Barnes & Noble Essay

The qualitative services department was hired to provide an in depth analysis of two leaders in their industry, Barnes & Noble and Amazon. The purpose of this report is to provide all the necessary data in an unbiased manner, so that the accounting partners may make their investment decision knowing all the facts and figures about both companies. Our report was developed as a result of conducting independent and group research about each company’s background, competitors, philosophical differences in management, success stories, challenges (past and future), strategic moves, as well as key comparative statistics. Our research was compiled using a variety of online sources. The analysis of these key areas will provide greater understanding as to which company to invest in, Barnes & Noble or Amazon.com. Background Barnes & Noble was founded in 1893 in Wheaton, IL as a printing business but has developed into the largest book retailer in the United States today. Headquartered in New York, Barnes & Noble has 675 stores worldwide and partners with 686 collegiate bookstores. It is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and employs more than 30,000 employees. Barnes & Noble has a significant presence in the United States as a physical retailer of books and magazines. Amazon was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington. It is traded on the NASDAQ, and as a strong historical performer, is a component of the NASDAW 100 and the S&P 500. Amazon was founded initially as an online bookstore but soon into seemingly every segment of consumer goods. Amazon is heavily involved in the Internet as an online retailer and producer of various applications linked to its tablet products. Amazon does a significant amount of business in books, both online and print, but differs from other book retailers in that it is a selling platform for seemingly anything you could think to purchase on the Internet. Competitive Strategy Barnes & Noble has a significant competitive advantage over Amazon and a number of other book retailers in that they have a physical location. While online shopping is a significant competitive force, it is very difficult to beat a physical store. Barnes & Noble goes to great lengths to ensure that their customers are comfortable in their stores, outfitting them with plush couches and chairs. In addition, Barnes & Noble often has cafes in their store locations. The goal is to keep customers in store as long as possible, even if they spend most of the day reading a magazine or a book, to ensure that they are making some kind of purchase. The store locations serve a two-fold purpose; they act as a physical showcase for books that can be purchased online and have environment that fosters community. The college textbook business is a very profitable segment of Barnes & Noble’s business. There is a great degree of markup on college textbooks that is deflected to students, and when students sell books back to colleges, it is at a greatly reduced price. Books repurchased by Barnes & Noble are repackaged and resold for a price greater than cost. Barnes & Noble is set apart from competition in this regard because no other retailer has a similarly structure partnership. The simple model that Amazon operates under is its key to success. Amazon uses little more than a bare bones online platform to sell its products meaning a minimal cost structure. At the same time, this business model requires no asset investment in physical store locations. Through an online platform, Amazon can offer products from a variety of sellers on a global scale, allowing them to mitigate expensive shipping costs. This online platform also means increased transferability to mobile devices, meaning they can offer the same services through application stores and exchanges. Amazon’s Kindle product line is a competitive advantage because it was first to market for handheld book readers. Since releasing the first Kindle, Amazon has only increased the Kindle’s capabilities to match that of the iPad, Nook, and Galaxy tablets. Amazon’s distribution process is a work of art. Amazon has been working very  hard to revolutionize the distribution process, from creating futuristic technology to developing basic processes that would increase efficiency of distribution channels. Currently, Amazon’s distribution channels are almost entirely automated. When a product is ordered, a â€Å"robot† processes the order and searches out the product on the warehouse shelves. The robot packages the product and returns it to the front of the warehouse, while dozens of other machines are operating simultaneously. Amazon’s extensive distribution network is far superior to any other competitors. Vision for the Future It’s clear that both companies understand the importance of e-commerce and accessibility to consumer goods on the online realm. Amazons’ chief business model is Internet commerce, but Barnes & Noble is moving towards this realm of commerce with the creation of the Nook. Both companies see business via handheld tablets becoming more prevalent, evident in the ever-increasing capabilities of the Nook (B&N) and Kindle Fire (Amazon). Barnes & Noble has beefed up their online presence while reducing their number of stores as well. Amazon’s vision of the future has more to do with distribution than anything else. Amazon is doing everything in their power to create a shopping experience similar to going to an actual store; including the instant gratification of receiving your purchased goods right as your purchase them. Amazon is moving towards an incredibly automated distribution channel that will reduce time to consumer through revolutionary technology. One of these te chnologies is drones that will fly purchased goods to a consumer’s home and drops them on the front step. Both companies understand the profit potential of the industry and are taking steps to capitalize on profit opportunities. Company Success Stories Both Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com have experienced great success in their years in business. Barnes & Noble originated in 1873 and opened its first bookstore in New York City in 1917. In the 1970’s they became the first bookstore to advertise on television, as well as the first bookstore to discount New York Times bestsellers at 40% off. From 1992 through 2003, Barnes & Noble released a series of classics for adults and children under the imprint Barnes & Noble Classics Collection. Barnes & Noble stores are also known for their Starbucks cafes, where people often sit and relax with a cup of coffee or a snack. Undoubtedly, Barnes & Noble’s greatest success comes from the NOOK, their electronic book reader, introduced in November 2009. The NOOK’s biggest competition for the tablet market comes from the Amazon Kindle Fire, and Apple’s iBooks for iPhone, iPad and iTouch. Although only in business 17 years, Amazon.com has experienced great success and is now the world’s largest retailer. Amazon has separate retail websites for the following countries: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, and China, with international shipping to certain other countries for some of its products. Amazon.com sells a variety of retail goods online including books, jewelry, baby items, tools, software, toys, and is a huge third party reseller. Amazon Prime membership is very popular and for an annual fee, a user can join, which entitles them to free two-day shipping on eligible purchases. Amazon Prime also provides Amazon Instant Video and access to the Kindle Owner’s Lending Library. Amazon’s greatest success to date is the introduction of its e-reader, Kindle, in November 2007 and the Kindle Fire in September 2011. Since 2007, Amazon has released multiple versions of the Kindle e-reader and two versions of the Kindle Fire. Its biggest competitors in the tablet market are the Barnes & Noble NOOK and the Apple iPad being used in conjunction with the Kindle app. Past Challenges The challenges that these two companies have faced, and continue to face, are the digital landscape and competition. Barnes & Noble became the last hope for bookstores after the collapse of Borders. Barnes & Noble is now the last major bookstore chain standing. The company is in constant competition with e-commerce sites, e-readers and tablets. It is safe to say that Barnes & Noble’s primary competitor is Amazon. Barnes & Noble began to utilize their website, offering more titles and including free shipping for members. After Amazon launched its tablet, the Kindle, Barnes & Noble was forced to step up in the digital landscape. It created the NOOK and the NOOK Bookstore. Several generations later, the NOOK has come a long way in its  evolution. Now it has become a tablet with color, a built in light, Internet searching and application capabilities. Its newest tablet comes in high definition. While the NOOK looks more appealing than it did in previous years, one thing stands i n its way of success, which is price. Amazon’s Kindle, is priced anywhere from $69-$100 cheaper than the NOOK. This is not to say Amazon doesn’t have its challenges either. Amazon has made a name for itself globally, however it still has competition with other e-commerce sites like e-Bay. EBay allows individual sellers to auction essentially anything they want for a fee. Amazon has limitations on what individual sellers can sell due to competition with other retailer partnerships with Amazon. However, according to a recent Forrester report, 30 percent of all online shoppers start at Amazon to research products as opposed to Google or eBay (Savitz, 2012). Another competitor Amazon faces is Apple. The highly coveted Apple iPad is in fierce competition with Amazon’s Kindle. While the iPad is more expensive than the Kindle, Apple fans might point out that the iPad has far more tablet-optimized apps, options for 4GLTE connectivity, and is the thinner and lighter device of the two. However, Amazon’s Kindle is a cheaper alternative for those who cannot afford an iPad or even the NOOK. Future challenges Any company trying to survive in today’s economy will undoubtedly face challenges. The key to success lays in predicting these challenges and implementing strategies to overcome them. The places where Amazon finds opportunity seem to be the same places where Barnes & Noble faces challenges. Firstly, Amazon continues to make it very attractive for authors to self-publish their titles with their publishing services including, the Kindle Direct Publishing option for online books, and the CreateSpace option for print books. Barnes & Noble does offer its own self-publishing service, PubIt, but its services are only offered for e-books, not print. In fact, 28% of the top-selling titles on Kindle are not even available on the NOOK (McIlroy, 2012). If Barnes & Noble wants to compete it will have to expand  its self-publishing services and offer better incentives to authors. Another challenge that Barnes & Noble faces is its lack of an international presence. The fact that Amazon operates in so many countries worldwide is a serious challenge for Barnes & Noble. The Kindle is available internationally, but the NOOK is not. The NOOK is one of Barnes & Noble’s most successful products. Therefore, it would seem logical to expand the number of locations where this product can be purchased. However, it still remains unclear as to when and if Barnes & Noble plans to expand to international markets. One challenge that Amazon could face may be the law. Since it allows an unlimited number of people to sell on the site, from all over the world, it is difficult to monitor every single product that is sold under the Amazon.com brand. In order to prevent future lawsuits it is crucial that Amazon.com employs a highly skilled legal team, and closely monitors its sellers and their products. Recommendation We have found that Barnes & Noble and Amazon may appear to rivals but this appearance is only visible on the surface. With further examination of the facts, it is evident that one company is far more successful than the other. We have concluded that Amazon.com is that company. These are the main factors that have contributed to our conclusions: †¢Amazon has more appealing future growth with the implementation of drone shipping. †¢Amazon’s success of the Kindle compared to Barnes & Noble’s NOOK. †¢Amazon sells internationally. Barnes & Noble only operates in the US. †¢Amazon allows an unlimited number of sellers to do business on its site. Barnes & Noble restricts its number of sellers to 200. †¢Amazon.com is more attractive and rewarding for self-publishing which is set to play a leading role in the future of industry. †¢Amazon has the capital to sell its products cheaper than Barnes & Noble. Therefore, with the evidence provided in this re port, we have determined that the most secure investment opportunity of these two companies is Amazon.com. Based on current performance, and the opportunities for future success that were outlined in this report, it is now clear that Barnes & Noble simply cannot compete with Amazon.com’s current success and future potential. Works Cited Amazon.com. (2011, October). Retrieved from http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-mediaKit Barnes and noble booksellers. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.barnesandnobleinc.com/for_investors/for_investors.html barnesandnobleinc.com . (2012). Retrieved from http://www.barnesandnobleinc.com/our_company/our_company.html McIlroy, Thad, (2012), Four Disadvantages for Barnes & Noble in the Bookseller Wars Retrieved from http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2012/four-disadvantages-for-barnes-noble-in-the-bookseller-wars/ Savitz, Eric. (2012, October 29). Amazon’s Hidden Weak Spot: Lack Of Local Leverage. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2012/10/29/amazons-hidden-weak-spot-lack-of-local-leverage

Annotated Bibliography-Sheila Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Annotated Bibliography-Sheila - Coursework Example The authors provide for research in the implementation of the system since it has many factors that limit the application. The changing physician growths study is compared to the increasing technology growth providing an in-depth review analysis. A method of research is limited to sampling of two centers in Canada. A barrier to the implementation includes technology, financial capital, and the time constraints which are in line with the previous research findings. It is important if the report could be implemented to reduce the health hazard. Gottlieb, L. M., Tirozzi, K. J., Manchanda, R., Burns, A. R., & Sandel, M. T. (2015). Moving electronic medical records upstream. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 48(2), 215-218. doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2014.07.009 The article is published by the almetric group. The research tries to find out how the basic clinics in our society can be managed and be controlled by the use electronic medical records especially those found in the vulnerable places. The social determinants of health are well determined that provide an excellent literature review. The author examines various case studies as the methodology criteria to collect data which are in collective agreement to all the researchers. The findings nonetheless seem dissimilar to previous researchers, and they propose further research before any implementation can be done. It is significant if the recommendation of the research be further scrutinized since three cases cannot be used for validity of the study. The article is published online by Eileen Oldfield. The articles narrate how physicians have adopted the use of more simple electronic records in healthcare management with the primary functions of taking patient history, clinic records and demographics. However, ERH does not have complete features hence prompting further research proposal by the author. The review is in-depth analysis that makes the reader generate conclusions with ease. Furthermore, the

Instrument History Report ( Strings ) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Instrument History Report ( Strings ) - Essay Example Different tones or pitches can be achieved with varying thickness and tightness of the strings, as well as with changing lengths. A string instrument may have strings already of various lengths played separately or in combinations, such as with harps and zithers. They can also have strings of the same length that are varied by pressing them against the instrument’s body, such as with lutes and lyres. Stringed musical instruments are said to have existed way back in 3500 BC with lyres and harps made by the Sumerians in Mesopotamia, and the harps of 3000 BC in the Old Empires of Egypt. But even before that time, the early civilizations in Africa and South America already developed the musical bow. Some say that it was made from the hunter’s bow and arrow, but others suggest that the bow and arrow evolved from the musical bow. In any case, the resemblance between the two seems to indicate that they are in a way related. From this simple single-stringed instrument, it is believed that the first harps were made. In form, these first harps were very similar to a simple bow in that a string is attached from one end of a bent piece of wood to another. However, unlike the musical bow, more strings have been added to produce a variety of tones in the harp. These harps were found in ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia as early as 3000 BC. Harps were later adopted by the early Christian Church as one of the appropriate musical instruments. During these times, very few instruments were acceptable as most of them were considered tools of the devil. The harp also plays a significant role in European nations where it has evolved through the Medieval age and the Renaissance into the harps we know today. In fact, quite a number of early cultures in Europe had harps in their myths and legends. In Ireland, the harp has become the national instrument because of its Celtic heritage. Similar to the harp, the lyre is another string instrument deeply rooted in

Girls Primary Schools in United Kingdom Coursework

Girls Primary Schools in United Kingdom - Coursework Example This does not promote feminism or any related activities thereof but uses their works to relay situational analysis. This serves to focus change mainly in the designation of school curriculum basing on gender abilities, skills and intellect at still a very young formative age which is mostly subject to resigned domestic and weak place in society. This dissertation is an amalgamation of the work carried out over centuries by precursors of the feminist movement which abolished the sign of male dominated tactics where imparting equal education in qualitative and quantitative terms was concerned. This topic is a challenging one as it focuses on a specific area in gender philosophy. The parameters to be studied are now deeply rooted in the history of our educational system and thus hold a large amount of interest and fascination for a student of feminist issues. Further, the time period being studied is of utmost importance where revolutionary trends in feminist approaches are concerned. In this regard, the work of feminists was the foundation stone for modern day theories in a very subtle manner. Every change happens through education and the study of changing trends in education to show the elements of emerging feminist trends of the period is a challenging and fascinating subject. The dissertation progresses on the general hypotheses of social criticism and the trends that emerged thereof, in context of feminist and gender philosophy conceptions. In this way, the underlying model is a realistic one, unlike the predictable idealistic one due to the fact that Wollstonecraft's work demonstrates the fact that she had great foresight. This dissertation will basically focus on the Education Acts of 1870, 1902, 1944 and 1968. In this regard, the dissertation will analyze the various trends that were followed when these acts were formulated in context of pressures like the importance of women's education as well as the situation of young women. Further, the curriculum and activities revolving around primary education will be discussed in context of the three Rs - religion, reading and writing. The issues and questions are ones pertaining to the general climate for change and whether or not it facilitated the trends that emerged in the area of a change in curriculum for the primary education of girls in UK during that period. The work will also pose the question of how these kinds of changes in education tend to influence the general outlook of society over the years. In this way the acts will be analyzed to find evidence surrounding whether or not they were successful and the criticisms that demonstrate their failures and flaws. These acts in general brought about a climate for change and the emergence of a new feminist perspective. Also, it helped change the curriculum and include more women oriented studies that did not necessarily revolve around

Critically evaluate the reasons for the recent global financial Essay

Critically evaluate the reasons for the recent global financial crisis, in the light of the articles in reference and other rele - Essay Example There are presently many analyses of the crisis, perhaps the best one appearing as a recent report from the United States Congress. It agrees with most analyses that, at least mark the origins of the crisis as occurring in the United States. and most of these analyses seem to reflect the two points of views that divide the US political system. In general one view would say that the crisis was precipitated by the greed of Wall Street speculators and subprime lenders. The other side would point to the victims of the crisis in the US, the ones who didn't have credit but agreed to take upon mortgages for housing they couldn't afford. The main effort of this report will be to describe how the crisis happened and rapidly spread to the UK, England, and other parts of the world. It will try to understand the corrective policies and measures that have been made. Finally it will address the question of who has responsibility for the crises occurring. Discussion The Setting On the eve of the of the 2007-2008 global economic crisis it is significant that all but a handful of the world's learned economists, despite the gradually accumulating data, could not see the disaster coming (Verick and Islam, 2010). Most of advisors were still under the influence of the 2001-2007 boom. Apparently this boom stood upon a shaky economic foundation that forced even the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to revise their forecasts. To understand the economics feeding this "straw boom", one must review world macroeconomics leading to it. There were two oil crises during the 1970s (Verick and Islam, 2010). The latest one occurred in 1979. This one produced a economic slowdown through the 1980s that especially characterized the developing countries. These countries had their economies more or less influenced by structural adjustment programs (SAPs) controlled by Western developed countries (Verick and Islam). SAPs were rendered by reduced macroeconomic volatility under the wisdom of government directed monetary policy in most of the developed countries. The 1990s can be experienced as low growth among these countries, with the Asian 1998 financial crisis all the more keeping that growth in low wings. The technology dot-com collapse occurred in 2001 and after it settled, the developed countries begin to collect themselves in a period of so-called sustained boom. Economist Robert Shiller is noted for reporting that the US housing boom started in the late 1990s (Verick and Islam, p. 15). This is notable as many commentators have placed blame for the current crises on the US monetary policy which lowered policy interest rates to 1 percent in 2003. The claim is that this effort in effect freed liquidity in US markets, heightening borrowing while creating debt-financed consumption (of housing). The point is that housing prices was on the rise in the US market before 2003. But even by that time, it only became more substantial as an open field for (housing) specula tors. The period from 2002 through 2007 became filled with "robust optimism". Bernard Beneche, a widely respected economist later to be Chair of the US Federal Reserved, termed the period as one of "Great Moderation". Global economic balances were fed by surplus capital from China and other Asian and Middle East countries, primarily into the US housing market, that is, the mortgage debt market. At this time,

Teamwork Experience Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Teamwork Experience - Essay Example It is also in partnership with Tacobell and Tapatio hot Sauce. I guess we decided on this since it is a favorite among college students. We later made a schedule on when we shall be meeting and how to handle our chosen topic. We concluded to break it down into its constituent subtopics such as the life cycle and maturity of Doritos, its competition, digital media and Doritos, improvements that could be made on the Doritos. I thought this was handled very nicely and almost professionally. During our meetings to come up with the report of our selected topics, members arrived o time. This was good since it meant that time would be effectively managed and that we would cover more base during our scheduled time. As members started making their contributions, I realized that everybody had done some research on our topics and sub topics. This was awesome. The team leader had an easy time since we just considered the points brought forward, deeply researched and made draft copies of our presentation. Someone on the team was chosen to compile the drafts into a final copy that we would use and hand in for grading. There was a hiccup in our teamwork. This was caused by the fact that everyone wanted or rather seemed to be a team leader. To some extent, this is good, but to some other extent, it is completely wrong. We had chosen one team leader, but everyone else who thought they would make better team leaders overpowered him. One major effect of this that really dragged us behind in the teamwork was that it made our meetings very disorganized. The organization of meetings is of paramount importance (Gueldenzoph, 2008). This is because of the limited time of the school semester and because of the workload, we had to cover. There being no clear set boundaries on the roles of each group member was a weakness on the part of the group and I wish we looked into this issue critically when forming the group. We could have allocated each

Evaluation of Website Content Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Evaluation of Website Content - Essay Example The site does not specify an author’s name but it states the copyrights are with Tom Way. The institution said to have published this document is the ‘Environmental Assessment Center, United States. It also specifies that the Dihydrogen Monoxide Research Division is situated in Newark, Delaware. The main aim of this site is to provide a platform for discussion by providing unbiased data. Though the URL of the site is given, the publisher does not disclose his qualifications. The chief goals of this site are to provide unbiased data on the subject of Dihydrogen Monoxide and also serve as a forum for discussions. The information given seems to be fairly detailed but one cannot guess how much of it is true. Moreover, the page seems to be a mask for advertising and therefore, the information cannot be said to be authentic or accurate. The name of the author has not been specified and it seems as though information and data have been gathered from various places. The site has an online store selling T. shirts and other things and the general public are asked to visit and lend their support by purchasing them. The site gives the last updated date, but this does not seem to be valid because it looks to be automatically updated every day and proves to be inauthentic. Moreover, it clearly states – â€Å"content veracity not implied† which clearly proves that the site is invalid as also its information. In addition, the site does not have a home page and an ‘about us’ page to give us information about the people running the site.

Philip Seymour Hoffman and Dr. Seuss Essay Example for Free

Philip Seymour Hoffman and Dr. Seuss Essay The more that you read, the more things you will know. The more that you learn, the more places youll go. Dr. Seuss We shouldnt teach great books; we should teach a love of reading. B. F. Skinner  Today a reader, tomorrow a leader. Margaret Fuller  Reading takes us away from home, but more important, it finds homes for us everywhere. Hazel Rochman â€Å"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts. † ― Winston Churchill tags: bravery, courage, failure, inspirational, success 13499 likes like W.C. Fields â€Å"If at first you dont succeed, try, try again. Then quit. No use being a damn fool about it.† ― W.C. Fields tags: humor, success 5582 likes like Albert Einstein â€Å"Try not to become a man of success. Rather become a man of value.† ― Albert Einstein tags: adulthood, success, value 4221 likes like Herman Melville â€Å"It is better to fail in originality than to succeed in imitation.† ― Herman Melville tags: success 3730 likes like Dr. Seuss â€Å"So be sure when you step, Step with care and great tact. And remember that lifes A Great Balancing Act. And will you succeed? Yes! You will, indeed! (98 and  ¾ percent guaranteed) Kid, youll move mountains.† ― Dr. Seuss, Oh, The Places Youll Go! tags: humor, inspirational, success 2945 likes like W.P. Kinsella â€Å"Success is getting what you want, happiness is wanting what you get† ― W.P. Kinsella tags: happiness, success 2784 likes like Truman Capote â€Å"Failure is the condiment that gives success its flavor.† ― Truman Capote

Effects Of Climate Change On Tourism Tourism Essay

Effects Of Climate Change On Tourism Tourism Essay Tourism is an industry that contributes to the world economy. In fact, some countries economies derive most of their revenues from tourism. The increase in individual income and the promotion of different countries of their attractions have caused the industry to grow. Its growth is also fueled by the ease of transportation as more and more hard-to-reach destinations have constructed airports for easier access. With airports, tourists find it possible to reach far-flung areas and enjoy the beauty of the local places. Those who come from cold places would seek warmer locations in the same or different continent. The Northern Europeans, for instance, would go to the nations in the south, like Spain and Italy, to take advantage of the warmer climate. Others would even go so far as Southeast Asia or the Caribbean for their beaches or coral reefs (Bigano et al. 2005, p. 1). In the past several years, there has been a growing concern over the effect of global warming on the climate. All around the world, climate changes are becoming more evident, causing flooding and extreme temperatures in different nations. Weather patterns have become unpredictable, which means that summer periods could be extended or winter may be longer than usual. These disturbances in the weather and their impact on the environment are significant to the tourism industry. The tourism industry is dependent on the predictability of the season in order to attract travelers who want to experience different activities related to the season. Those who love skiing would visit ski lodges while the water enthusiasts are going to beaches during summer. But with climate changes, the tourism industry is affected in various ways. Climate changes can directly or indirectly affect the local destinations, which need to retain their appeal to foreign visitors in order for the industry to flourish. A. Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism Each tourist destination worldwide has its own appeal. This can come from the activities it can provide to visitors, like skiing or golf, or it can come from their natural beauty or what nature has to offer. It is important that each destination should retain its charms in order to keep the tourist industry booming. Another important factor to keep tourism alive is that of accessibility. Areas that become damaged or inaccessible lose their charm, causing tourists to seek other unspoilt or reachable destinations. With climate change, the beauty of the local destinations is threatened while accessibility too can become a problem especially when airports, roads and bridges are destroyed during extreme weather disturbances. The different impact of climate changes on the tourism industry will be discussed in the succeeding sections. (i) Coral Bleaching: Affects Scuba Diving Tourists Scuba diving is one of the most popular activities that encourages the growth of tourism. Areas with extensive and diverse coral reefs would attract visitors from different countries to explore the wonders of the underwater world. However, climate changes in recent years have caused damage to the oceans and the reefs. In the Philippines, a country that is blessed with various diving sites, the warming of the sea especially from the El Nino phenomenon resulted to what is known as coral bleaching. Coral bleaching results to the death of about 49% of live coral. Moreover, the higher amount of dissolved CO2 means that corals, mollusks and shells are also destroyed in the process (Ocean Heritage Philippines 2009). Without these organisms and creatures underwater, the diving industry in this nation will suffer. The diving crowd does not have any reason to visit the Philippines if its corals and sea life will continue to experience devastation. Maldives is another country that would be severely affected by climate changes. Like the Philippines, it also has rich coral reefs that are in danger of being destroyed because of coral bleaching. Divers who visit Maldives specifically for its coral would lose a reason for visiting the island. The same is true for all the other diving spots worldwide. They would all suffer the lessening of the number of visitors to their places. Tourists who are into diving may opt to stay in their places of origin or pursue other alternatives if there are not enough corals in the world left that are worth their time (Viner and Agnew 1999, p. 16). (ii) Coastal Flooding and Erosion A more pressing concern of climate changes is the rising of the sea level. Maldives elevation is low, which means that the higher the sea level rises, the more likely will the island be overwashed with storm surges. It is estimated that Maldives could be removed from the map in the next 30 years if the sea level continues to rise unabated. Not only will the countrys tourism become affected but the entire island would disappear (Viner and Agnew 1999, p. 17). The Bahamas is another popular destination among tourists because of its temperate climate and its pristine beaches. But the warming brought on by climate changes is going to negatively impact the island. Like the Maldives, the Bahamas is also vulnerable to storm surges, which can get worse with the rising of the sea level. Its freshwater bodies are also turning brackish because of the encroachment of the seawater. Flooding and coastal erosion will severely impact the tourism industry of the Bahamas because tourism is dependent on the relative beauty of the coastal areas. Resorts and hotels could be severely damaged if there are strong storm surges. This island, along with others in the Caribbean, must adapt to climate changes so that their vulnerabilities are lessened (Smith 2008). (iii) Threat to Winter Activities: Reduction of Snow Cover While rising sea levels and coral bleaching threaten tropical islands, those that are located in colder regions are faced with a different kind of threat brought on by climate changes. The tourism industry in colder regions are dependent on winter sports, like skiing, The general trend in the weather conditions is that of warming, which means that the summer months could be extended and the snow cover would be lower. Without enough snow, traditional ski resorts will not be able to offer their usual winter activities. Without those activities, tourism will become slow since their visitors would not want to be stuck in ski resorts with nothing to do for the duration of their vacation (Viner and Agnew 1999, p. 19). In the Prairie Provinces of Canada, which includes Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, it is expected that the grassland ecozone will be shifting North, and the wildlife will also move with the ecozone. Some wildlife will not be able to adapt to rapid changes, which can result to their extinction. Wildlife enthusiasts will also follow the game and would not visit the usual places where tourism normally is. A longer summer is also foreseen, which will threaten the livelihood of ski resort operators, restaurants, and hotels (International Institute for Sustainable Development 1997, p. 9). Alternatively, cool destinations become more attractive not because of the winter sports but as a respite from the warming of the already warm regions. People would seek colder places, like North America and Australia. The British and German tourists, who are considered to be the largest in the number of overall international tourists, may prefer to stay home because their weather would not be too cold anymore (Lynas 2003, p. 97). The result of this would be a decline in international tourism revenues. (iv) Uncomfortably High Temperatures Causes Shift in Destinations While ski resorts are experiencing lower revenues because of shorter seasons, those that are located in warmer climates are also finding it a problem when temperatures rise to an uncomfortable level. Northern Europeans mostly like to go vacationing during winter in other parts of the world where the weather is usually sunny for most of the year. They would stay outdoors to sunbathe for several hours. However, summer temperatures are likely to rise above 40 degrees Celsius. This level is already very high for human to still feel comfortable. This can already lead to heat stress and may even cause fatalities due to stroke. Tourists are not likely to visit the summer places to avoid the soaring temperatures. They could instead go to places that are still cold but not as cold as their own regions. Alternatively, the holidaymakers may opt to postpone their vacations to a later time of the year or take it earlier while the heat is not that intense yet (Viner and Agnew 1999, p. 21). Bigano et al. (2005, p. 8) stated that it is possible for the movement of tourists to shift and for international tourism revenues to become lower. Some regions are going to benefit from the shift since tourists would be heading to temperate regions; others will suffer from the movement because of the loss of revenues. (v) Spread of Diseases There are many diseases that thrive on warmer climates. Many of them become spread or carried to other countries that did not have them in the past because of the movement of people and goods. The dengue-carrying mosquito and the malaria-carrying mosquito do not thrive in cold climates. They are found in tropical countries in Africa and in Southeast Asia. But with the warming of the globe, suitable environments can be created for them in other nations. This can affect tourism because holidaymakers will shun a tourist destination that becomes a source of a fatal illness. In Spain, for example, the nation is seen as a no-risk destination. Meaning, tourists do not need to get immunized for malaria or the yellow fever. People can go to Spain and have their fun without worrying about exotic diseases. However, malaria has resurfaced in Spain because the climate changes in the region is becoming ideal for the breeding of the type of mosquitoes that carry the disease (Viner and Agnew 1999, p. 23). (vi) Loss of Income for Tourist Destinations Since climate changes cause temperatures to rise, the result of that would be the melting of snowcaps and the inundation of coastal areas. The melting of snowcaps is going to hurt the ski operators in Japan, Australia, North America, and the European Alps. When snow melts, that would cause the water level to rise, which in turn will flood coastal areas that are very attractive to those who like to experience the sea. All of these would deal a huge blow on industries that directly or indirectly depend on tourism. The ski resorts are going to lose customers without enough snow for their usual activities. The beach resorts are going to be damaged because of flooding and the natural attractiveness of the beaches could get damaged after flooding. People working on resorts are going to lose their jobs. Those that are indirectly affected by a decline in tourism are the tour guides, the hotels, and the people who derive their income from selling to tourists or for offering their services. Of the $735 billion revenues generated from international tourism, about one third of that income went to developing countries that boasts of beautiful beaches and extensive coral reefs. A worsening of climate change means that developing countries are going to lose a rich source of income (Balboa 2009). B. Implication for Tourism Management Policies Although tourism is a big source of income, it can also become the source of pollution that affects the environment and contributes to climate change. Air travel, ground activities, and ground transport all increase the emissions of carbon dioxide, which causes the climate to become erratic. This means that the local governments should implement policy changes so that tourism does not become a problem. Toward this end, several tourist destinations worldwide are already taking measures to avoid worsening the environmental degradation, as well as, preserve natural attractions. The Boracay Island in the Philippines is one of the famous destinations for people who enjoy long, shorelines with white and powdery beaches. The local government, along with various environmental groups like Green Peace Solar Generation Youth, has implemented climate-friendly solutions that tourists and resort operators should follow. These include responsible tourism, energy efficiency, and zero waste. Energy efficiency measures include the use of solar panels for powering laptops and the use of batteries to operate cars and motorbikes (Temblador 2009). The Phuket island of Thailand promotes ecotourism since the government is also aware that businesses and individuals have to radically change how they deal with the environment in order to lower greenhouse emissions. The Carbon Neutral Concept is already in effect so that those who are in the island become environmental stewards who protect and conserve the natural resources for the future. The program also calls for businesses and individuals to measure and limit their carbon footprints. If possible, they should target net zero emissions (Hot Phuket Villas, n.d.). These two examples are just among the local changes initiated by the governments of areas that are known to be popular tourist destinations. However, these efforts are localised and only aimed at protecting local attractions. There is a need to coordinate efforts among the global tourism industry so that long-term solutions are reached. Those that are in the business should also work with various governments and interest groups so that more countries adapt to the changes that the environment needs. Conclusion It is undeniable that the world is experiencing weather disturbances due to climate changes. Experts believe that environmental damage is one of the reasons why this is happening. Tourism is found to be a contributing factor to climate changes because the movement of people and their activities while on vacation increase the level of carbon emissions. The different effects of climate changes include snowcaps melting, coral bleaching, flooding, and rising sea levels, which are all causing changes to the tourism industry. The more obvious effects include the lowering of the number of tourists in popular destinations where the natural resources, like coral reefs and beaches, have been destroyed due to climate changes. It is also predicted that there is going to be a shift in the movement of people away from overly warm climates to temperate ones, which creates new jobs in new places while making the old destinations suffer economically due to job losses. The impact of climate changes on tourism calls for reforms in the existing policies that relate to the environment. There is a need for local and international cooperation so that the businesses and individuals in the sector will be able to adapt to these changes. The tourism industry has to adopt measures so that natural resources are protected. These measures should also contribute to the protection of the global environment.

Past, Present and future Factors affecting Human Resource Planning

Past, Present and future Factors affecting Human Resource Planning Human resource planning has traditionally been used by organizations to ensure that the right person is in the right job at the right time. Under past conditions of relative environmental certainty and stability, human resource planning focused on the short term and was dictated largely by line management concerns. Increasing environmental instability, demographic shifts, changes in technology, and heightened international competition are changing the need for and the nature of human resource planning in leading organizations. Planning is increasingly the product of the interaction between line management and planners. In addition, organizations are realizing that in order to adequately address human resource concerns, they must develop long-term as well as short term solutions. As human resource planners involve themselves in more programs to serve the needs of the business, and even influence the direction of the business, they face new and increased responsibilities and challenges . In the beginning, HRM definition was as a Process through which a companys management was able to determine how the company would be able to achieve a desired manpower level. The means to achieve this were planning, and efforts by the management to employ the right kind of people at the right positions and at a proper time, and in a way that it would benefit in the long run both the company and the employees. Presently HR management it is a part of a much wider context of the business strategic organizational plan. It is, in addition to the present planning, also forecasting all future human resources needs of the company and how to achieve best results. It starts by first determining the objectives and then try to develop programmes like appraising of the present staff, compensations, training etc. in order to make sure that people with the required qualifications and skills would be available to the company whenever they are needed. It also develops and implement various programmes aiming to improve the performance while, at the same time, the employees are kept satisfied and involved in companys productivity, product quality and or innovation. Concluding, human resources management and planning is necessary to collect data which can be useful when it comes to evaluate how effective the ongoing programmes are, thus enabling the planners to detect and decide on necessary program revision s or forecast amendments. As one of plannings objectives is to improve a companys effectiveness, it should be integrated into the companys short and longer term business targets and operational planning. Most of the leading organizations in industry are implementing this, unlike what happened in the past when business requirements and HR planning normally were restricted only to personnel requirements. This conservative approach was in line with short-term personnel orientation. In our times, because of revolutionary changes in socioeconomic environment and business concept and the uncertainties these changes are causing, companies integrated their business planning with HR planning and management, thus creating a longer-term perspective. HR planning process became an integral part of the strategic business planning. HR planning and management became a part of the whole companys development and expansion planning process. Companies, at least most of them, do nothing without involving HR management in their planning either it concerns policy or finalization procedures of any kind. It can be explained as an integrated connection between HR planning and companys business. A connection bringing together the line managers and HR planners in order to determine HR future requirements and business plans for development, analyse the workforce profile along with future business strategies, review and deal with appearing HR issues, and create programmes to face and resolve such issues thus supporting future business planning. In this way, when HR managers and planners make companys business planners to comprehend and appreciate that HR planning and management represents a major advantage against their competitors, meaning an inc rease in profits provided there is a careful management. In this thesis Ill try and explain a few of the activities where industrial and other organisations HR planners and managers are involved with, when trying to make an organisation more competitive by correct and effective HR planning and management. Factors Influencing the Interest in Human Recourses Management and Planning There is no doubt that the contemporary increased attention of the industry to HR planning and management is influenced by many factors, among others the most important are considered the new technologies, globalization, environmental concerns, changing economic conditions, and the potential of workforce changes. These factors result to a complex and uncertain business environment. Efficient operations can be influenced by uncertain conditions and force organizations to try and find ways to reduce its impact; formal and efficient planning is a tool, both industry and organizations use as a protection against business environmental uncertainties. Considering the changes in workforce characteristics, one only of the environmental factors, though important, it is evident that there is a need for correct and timely planning and HR management. Between 1976 and 1980, the labour force in the industrialised world grew by an average of 2.8%, but between 1991 and 1995, the rate of growth dropped to 1.1 %. Also as per ILO (International Labour Organisation), and other recognized international statistical bodies, the year 1980 in USA more than 3 million people entered the countrys workforce, but only 2 million each year between 1981 and 1995. During the years 1995 and 2010 a total of 25 million workers entered the workforce. Of them the 22% were immigrants. All these demographic projections have significant implications for human resource management, thus increasing the importance of human resources planning. The changing demographics mean that there will be fewer workers are entry-level, so the competition among employers will increase. Moreover, the changing demographics signal changes in abilities, skills, interests and values of the workforce of tomorrow. For example, the lack of many types of skilled workers are imminent, including tool-and-die makers, builders, shipbuilders, engineers, machinists, and engineers. Even if organizations are willing to train new employees, the work can be difficult. An examination of how the values of workers who will soon constitute the majority of the workforce differ from those that will begin to leave propose additional changes in the near future. There are already signs of growing resistance from employees to relocate. Greater emphasis on self-assessment and mitigation faith and loyalty to employers makes it more difficult for agencies to undertake to move employees around anywhere and anytime. A decline in organizational trust occur at a time when workers feel insecure about their jobs. A recent study comparing the work values of people aged over 40 years with those of 40 other proposed changes for which they must prepare. For example, workers from the younger generation does not trust authority we do as members of the older generation, which are products of the First World War era II. The younger generation believes that the work should be fun, while the older generation sees work as a duty and a vehicle for financial support. Younger workers believe people should advance as quickly allows competence, whereas older workers believe that experience is a necessary path to promotion. Finally, the study found that the younger generation, fairness is to enable people to be different, but the older generation means treating people equally. Changes in the workforce is only one aspect of the environment stimulate the need for human resource planning. Demographic change is somewhat predictable, but when considered in conjunction with changing technology and many other external changes described elsewhere in this work, will pose significant challenges for human resource planning and help to change the regime in last two decades. A model for the description of Human Resources The remainder of this paper will try to explain the activities performed by designers of human resources at leading organizations. Throughout the discussion, I will describe four phases of human resource planning: (A) gathering and analyzing data to predict the expected demand of human resources as a business plan for the future and predict future human resource supply; (B) Establish objectives of human resources; (C) Design and implement programs that will enable the organization to achieve the objectives of human resources; And (D) Monitoring and evaluation of programs. Â  Activities related to the four phases of human resources planning are described for three different time horizons: short term (one year), intermediate term (two to three years) and long (over three years). These correspond to typical time horizons for business planning. Using the same conventions heads use to distinguish between activities with different time horizons is a step towards human resource planners can take to facilitate the integration efforts with business needs. . Although the four phases of human resource planning is conceptually the same regardless of time horizon, no practical difference to improve the functionality of four phases, as the time horizon expands. Therefore, activities related to the planning horizon for each explained separately and in sequence, starting with short-term planning. We start with the smallest term planning horizon because they are historically the HRM activities of many analysts have been made to achieve short-term goals. As organizations and HRM analysts began to recognize the potential benefits of engaging in more planning condition, however, in view of long-term issues has become more common. Therefore, as explained later in this thesis, many analysts HRM is now engaged in activities designed to prepare organizations for decades to come. In our discussion away from the stages of human activity Resource Planning, according to three time horizons, we do not mean to suggest that organizations which separates the planning of their activities in this way. The reality is that organizations should integrate their activities in the four phases of design, and the three time horizons, as shown in Figure 1. Since the feed-forward and feed-back arrows connecting the four phases of the design show, planning activities within a time frame associated with each other in a dynamic system. Initial phases (eg, forecasts of demand and supply) to serve as inputs to subsequent phases (eg, setting goals). Equally important, organizations can learn from the results obtained during the evaluation phase and then apply what is learned to make adjustments in goals and programs. In addition to the arrows connecting the four phases of design in each time frame, Figure 1 includes arrows to highlight (A) How long-term goals that can influence the design of shorter term (dotted line arrows), (B) how short-term results of the evaluation can affect the predictions for the future of human resources and programs designed to meet future requirements, and (c) the results achieved through the implementation of human resource programs may affect the business plans. Arrows connecting the design activities for different time horizons is important to note because it stressed that the planning for a time horizon usually has consequences for the other. For example, long-term planning almost always leads to the development of programs to be implemented within a short time and intermediate term. Moreover, the evaluation results obtained for short-term projects often lead to a re-evaluation of longer term projects which in turn can induce changes in programs designed to meet longer term. The idea is to have full integration of all types of human resource planning activities and the integration between human resources and business planning. Short-Term Human Resource Planning Many HRM analysts work on activities related to designing and implementing programs (e.g., recruitment, selection systems, and training programs) to meet short-term organizational needs. Such activities generally involve an element of planning in that they are future-oriented to some extent. Even projects for which objectives are expected to be achieved in as little time as a few months have, ideally, been designed with an understanding of how the short-term objectives are linked to the achievement of longer term objectives. For example, an aeronautics company engaged in a recruitment campaign to hire 100 engineers should have a clear understanding of how this hiring goal will help the company achieve long-term goals such as becoming a most innovative company in that industry. This hypothetical company also might have a college recruiting drive designed to find 75 college graduates to enter a training program in recognition of the fact that a growing company needs to prepare for the middle managers it will need 5 to 7 years hence, as well as the top level managers it will need in 10 to 15 years. As this hypothetical example highlights, in order for a clear linkage to exist between human resource planning and strategic business planning, it is essential that an organizations top executives have a fully articulated vision for the future, which has been communicated and accepted by managers throughout the organization. Forecasting Demand and Supply In a short-term time horizon, demand and supply of human resources can be predicted with some certainty. Human resource objectives follow logically from consideration of any discrepancies between demand and supply. Demand refers to the number and characteristics (e.g., skills, abilities, pay levels, or experience) of people needed for particular jobs at a given point in time and at a particular place. Supply refers to both the number and characteristics of people available for those particular jobs. Salient questions are What jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months? and How and where will we get people to fill (or vacate) those jobs? What jobs need to be filled and vacated? Answering the demand question involves predicting who will leave jobs and create vacancies, which jobs will be eliminated, and which new jobs will be created. One method for predicting both vacancies and job growth is to project historical trends into the future. This is particularly relevant for organizations affected by regular, cyclical fluctuations in demand for their products or services. Behavioural theories of the causes of turnover combined with employee surveys designed to assess attitudinal predictors of turnover (e.g., job satisfaction) also help HRM analysts and human resource planners predict how many currently filled positions are likely to become vacant. Such information can produce useful predictions when the organizational unit of interest is large, although making predictions about precisely which positions are likely to become vacant is less precise. Predictions about how many and what types of jobs will be eliminated or cre ated in the short term generally follow directly from business plans submitted by line managers. How and where will we get people to fill and vacate jobs? The first step in answering this question-the supply question-involves determining the desired characteristics of employees who fill (or vacate) the jobs of interest. Then the availability of those characteristics in the organizations current work force and in the external labour market must be assessed. The particular characteristics of current and potential employees that are inventoried and tracked by human resource planners are influenced by the nature of the organization and the environment in which it operates. For example, for human resource planners in growing organizations, simply finding people with the needed skills and abilities is likely to be a top priority. For planners in mature and declining organizations, the costs (e.g., salary level) associated with employees become more salient, especially if work-force reductions are needed. Thus it is important for the human resource planner to know the business needs and characteristics of the organization. This knowledge is gained by human resource planners meeting with line managers to discuss their business plans as well as their human resource needs. The process of discussion increases the accuracy of supply and demand forecasts and facilitates the establishment of human resource objectives.. Establishing Objectives With a short-time horizon, objectives are often easy to state in quantifiable terms. Examples of short-term human resource objectives include increasing the number of people who are attracted to the organization and apply for jobs (increase the applicant pool); attracting a different mix of applicants (with different skills, in different locations, etc.); improving the qualifications of new hires; increasing the length of time that desirable employees stay with the organization; decreasing the length of time that undesirable employees stay with the organization; and helping current and newly hired employees quickly develop the skills needed by the organization. Such objectives can generally be achieved in a straightforward way by applying state-of-the-art human resource management techniques and working with line managers to ensure agreement with and understanding of the program objectives. Design and Implementation of Short-Term Programs The technical skills of HRM analysts are often applied to short-term program design and implementation. For example, recruiting programs are used to influence the size and quality of the applicant pool. Selection programs are developed for making hiring decisions. Performance appraisal systems identify performance deficiencies to be corrected and competencies to be rewarded. Training programs emphasize developing skills for use in the near future. Compensation systems are designed to attract new employees, to motivate people to perform well, and to retain employees. Even when these activities are designed to achieve short-term objectives and are expected to have relatively immediate pay-offs, they can serve to help an organization achieve its longer term goals. A vice-president and general manager of a known Corporation (name withheld by request), described how short-term human resource planning efforts helped his organization achieve its strategic goals; The Company realized it had an opportunity to significantly increase its business, but to do so would require them to increase their hourly work force by a net of about 125 employees in one year, at a time when the local unemployment rate was only 2.5%. Past experiences had taught Barden that foreign immigrants often became excellent employees. Although there were many immigrants from a variety of different countries who were interested in employment, a major hurdle to their immediate success was their lack of fluency in English. The said V. President and General Manager described the problem and the solution, like this: To begin to be functioning, qualified Companys employees, newcomers must not only master the basic English vocabulary, but they must be able to look up standard operating procedures, read Material Safety Data sheets, and they must also master basic shop mathematics, measurement processes and blueprint reading . We asked Personnel to investigate how we might teach these people enough English to pay their way. The upshot was this: We employed an English language teacher. A special intensive course was developed in cooperation with our training unit. All students are on our payroll and meet with the English instructor four hours a day for 15 consecutive work days during working hours. The effect has been amazing. The confidence level of the students has soared as they have tried out their new language ability. Supervisors are impressed. And the word is getting out to the community with positive results. This example illustrates a problem that organizations will face increasingly in the near future, namely, a shortage of qualified entry-level job applicants. This demographic change is likely to mean that organizations will begin to shift the focus of their short-term human resource programs. During the past 30 years, the combined forces of equal employment opportunity (EEO) legislation and the abundant supply of new entrants into the labour force were congruent with human resource activities aimed at improving the ability of organizations to select employees on the basis of their job-related skills and abilities. Organizations benefitted from investing in the design, validation, and use of selection tests of all sorts. This is because even tests with relatively low, but nonzero, validity can have economic utility when selection ratios are sufficiently low. As the workforce shrinks, but the selection conditions will become more bigger. As a result, small marginal gains in test validity have less economic benefit, based on the past. To yield to invest in the development and use of modern methods for selecting economic returns have much more energy to combat the recruitment efforts for the number of candidates because only increase by attracting a large pool of candidates can be considered fair selection addressed are low. If small selection ratio can not be maintained, organizations can be concluded that their resources are better in training, efforts to achieve these few that are available to prepare invested. Examples of innovative recruiting programs are already plentiful. For example X Inc., has a mobile recruitment office, a van that a closed recruitment center that is looking for candidates, by visiting schools, shopping centers, and so on. X-2 employs successful minority business people to help in the community to recruit minority applicants and act as mentors. We can look at a real example: McDonalds Corporation as a leader in the recruitment of older workers emerged, which with TV commercials and formal relationships with senior citizens organizations. It is important to note that these efforts require the pool of candidates so often a coordinated medium-term programs designed to ensure that the non-traditional recruitment are effective and can be retained to expand. Evaluation of Short-Term Human Resource Programs Since for any evaluation of the program, true, this phase involves evaluating how well objectives have been achieved. Due to determine the short-term planning in terms of objectives, in general, that relatively easy to quantify (eg the number of candidates is the number of hires and performance of employees), systematic evaluation of programs for short-term organizational needs, staff development is quite feasible , and some types of program evaluations are indeed common in large organizations. For example, in part because a number of international and state laws prohibit certain forms of discrimination, in particular the selection programs have been carefully checked to ensure that employers make decisions concerning the selection of candidates, characteristics that are job related basis. Legal regulations have prompted many organizations, especially large, to evaluate empirically the relationship between applicant characteristics (eg skills) and job performance. Such evaluation stu dies (validity studies) benefit the employers because they serve the purpose of getting the right people in the right job monitor. Validity studies also serve an academic function by valuable data for researchers interested in improving our understanding of the factors that influence human performance. Until recently, when programs for the selection, training and motivation of HRM analysts criteria of effectiveness have been almost exclusively behavioral changes (such as performance and turnover were assessed) or settings (eg, job satisfaction and commitment). Such criteria have no defense to be accepted by analysts, but line management support for Human Resource programs can be difficult if the expected results of such programs are not translated in the language of business, that is, to get money. Building with continued progress in the utility analysis techniques, and human resources cost estimation techniques, it is always possible compelling economic arguments in support of human resources programs. of So, rather than argue for energy to spend resources to short-term programs that perform HRM analysts in organizational settings are free, more extensively engaged in medium-and long-term human resources issues. Intermediate Term Human Resource Planning As we have noted, is planning organizations used to the production or service delivery processes buffer from sources of uncertainty. Human resource programs for the recruitment, selection, training and motivation of staff to help reduce the uncertainty by ensuring that a sufficient number of people with the required characteristics and skills are available at all levels in the organizations. If the planning horizon is short, there is little uncertainty about what skills and how many people are needed, and it is forecast to provide relatively easy. However, rapid and ongoing changes in todays business world means that not just the future by simply projecting past trends can be expected. As the focus moves from short term planning in the medium term the question what do we need? is less easy to answer and so is always dominant. For medium-term planning, there is more uncertainty with respect to the question What will there be? Consequently, personnel planning for the distant future quickly raises the question, How can we determine what is needed and what will there be? In other words, more technical attention be given to the problem of forecasting. As a short-term staffing to provide the two problems of forecasting, demand and forecasts of both, before goals can be demonstrated and developed programs are addressed. With the growing uncertainty, the interaction between the human resource planners and line managers is critical for accurate forecasts of supply and demand. Medium-term Demand Forecast To forecast the number and characteristics of people who are necessary to the jobs that will exist in the organization of medium-term future (is in two three years ago), the strategic planner and try to organizational outputs to predict, as expected, the production volume, turnover and levels. The outputs that an organization to deliver produce or to use in combination with the technology, the organization that wants to dictate to generate the outputs, the human resources needs of the intended organization. Prediction outputs needed in view of factors such as future requirements of the market for the products and services, the organization offers, the share of the market that the organization is likely to be able to serve, the availability and nature of new technologies that the amounts can affect, and types of products or services that may be offered, and the various countries to serve in which the organization of it. The task of drawing up plans that specify the intended future results (in terms of quantity, type and location) of the organization is usually the responsibility of middle level managers. Human resource planners need to translate these objectives must be for outputs to predict the amount and type of jobs that people perform in order will produce the desired results. Prediction of future needs of human resources requires: (A) Once an accurate model of the factors that influence the demand and (B) is able to predict the state of all important variables in the model. Organizations that may be quite stable in environments that most models of the main factors that determine the demand for up to three years in the future to construct part. It is even possible that some organizations to quantify the expected values of the variables in their models, what they can statistical forecasting techniques such as regression analysis, using time series analysis and stochastic modeling of the human means demand forecast. For companies that are in an unstable environment, however, still three years predictions probably the most uncertain, since both the variables and their expected values difficult to specify precisely by on historical data. Given the complexity of the statistical forecast, it is understandable that the evaluative techniques used more frequently than statistical techniques. A simple type of judgmental forecasting is a Senior estimate. Estimates of staffing are made by middle-and lower-level line managers, which they pass to the top manager for further changes to an overall strategy demand forecast form. Increasingly, planners are human resource in these stages of the estimation and revision involved an integrated approach to planning ensured. A more sophisticated method of judgmental forecasting, the Delphi technique, developed a decision-making method in order to maximize benefits and minimize the dysfunctional aspects of group decision making is. In a Delphi session (which must not be face-to-face) take, several experts will present their forecasts and assumptions. An intermediary is any expert in the forecast and assumptions to the other, then the changes in their own forecasts. This process continues until a viable composite forecast is created. The composite may represent specific projections or a series of projections, depending on the expert positions. The Delphi technique seems to be particularly useful for the generation of solutions for unstructured and complex issues, such as those generated during the planning. There are limits, however. For example, if experts do not agree that their views on a final solution that all parties accept the yield can be difficult. Nevertheless, the personnel integrate planners various forecasts to establish the human resource objectives and design programs to achieve these objectives, and line managers are the forecasts as appropriate when they accept offers for their support during th e implementation phase of the Human Resources Programs . Both executives estimates and the Delphi technique usually on forecasts for the number of employees, the focus is likely to be needed. Less attention is usually paid to the question of quality (eg, skills and abilities) that require the prospective employee is primarily because techniques were not widely available for predicting this. If analysts participate in short-term planning, job analysis is used to need the qualities that employees in order to determine current run existing jobs. Rapid technological changes mean jobs in the future are certain jobs in the present, however, differ. As an indication of the fact that HRM analysts now frequently deal with problems of medium-term planning, research, efforts are underway to establish procedures for the implementation of future-oriented (strategic) job analysis and identifying the leadership skills that are necessary for developing effective performance in the future. Because job analysis results in the basis on which the majority of human resource programs are constructed, the development of sound future-oriented job analysis methods is a challenge that must meet HRM analysts before they can realize their potential as contributors to the long-term effectiveness of organizations. Forecasting Intermediate-Term Supply Supply forecasts can be derived from information from both internal and external sources, but internal sources are usually the most important