Saturday, August 31, 2019
Exclusionary Rule
Contemporary Issues Paper: The Exclusionary Rule Jennifer Howell November 6, 2010 The Exclusionary Rule and Its Exceptions Introduction: The Exclusionary Rule The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States protects citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures by law enforcement personnel. (US Const. amend. IV) Though the Amendment â€Å"forbids unreasonable searches and seizures, it does not provide a mechanism for prevention or a remedy. (Jackson, 1996) After passage of the Fourth Amendment, courts began to make laws regarding the rule against unreasonable searches and seizures.The courts designed a rule known as the Exclusionary Rule, which provided a remedy for the violation of a suspect’s Fourth Amendment privileges: any evidence seized in violation of the suspect’s rights and protections may not be used against the suspect in a criminal prosecution. The courts have been working and refining the exclusinary rule since its introduction in the 1900 ’s. (Exclusionary Rule, n. . ) The first case that applied the exclusionary rule was the case of Weeks v. United States, 232 U. S. 393, in which the Supreme Court â€Å"held that the Fourth Amendment barred the use of evidence secured through a warrantless search. †(Exclusionary Rule, n. d. ) The exclusionary rule requires an illegal action by a police officer or agent of the police, evidence secured as a result of the illegal action, and a â€Å"casual connection between the illegal action and the evidence secured. †(Evaluation, n. d. ) Exceptions to the Exclusionary RuleSince the introduction of the exclusionary rule, courts have found that it can not be enforced across the board, and have carved out a number of exceptions. These are: * The Impeachment Exception This exception allows the Government to offer illegally-seized evidence on cross-examination of the defendant to impeach the defendant after the defendant takes the stand and perjures himself. It sho uld be noted that the exception applies only to the testimony of the defendant, and not to any other witnesses. * The Independent Source ExceptionThis exception is a way of protecting the government’s case when the evidence was found â€Å"through an independent source sufficiently distinguishable to be purged of the primary taint. †(Jackson, 1996) That is, the evidence was seized not only illegally, but also legally. * The Inevitable Discovery Exception The inevitable discovery exception was established to allow the admission of illegally-seized evidence that, though it was discovered unlawfully and in violation of the Fourth Amendment, would have inevitably been discovered anyway, through lawful means. The Good Faith Exception When an officer acts on a search warrant and discovers evidence, and the search warrant is later determined to be invalid, the evidence can still be used as long as the officers acted in good faith that the warrant was valid at the time of its execution. This exception was developed because the purpose of the exclusionary rule was not designed to punish the errors of judges and magistrates, but to deter police misconduct. (Exclusionary Rule, n. d. ) * The Harmless Error ExceptionThe harmless error exception allows introduction of evidence as long as the evidence is determined to be â€Å"harmless†evidence – that is, it applies to immaterial issues. The evidence and circumstances are reviewed by the court, and the evidence has to be found harmless by a reasonable doubt. (Jackson, 1996) * The Rule of Attenuation The Court established the â€Å"rule of attenuation,†which allows the introduction of illegally-seized evidence when â€Å"the Fourth Amendment violation is sufficiently far from the discovery of the evidence as to dissipate the taint. (Jackson, 1996) The Courts have provided three factors for Courts to apply to determine if the rule of attenuation applies: â€Å"(1) the length of time betw een the illegality and the seizure of evidence, (2) the presence of additional intervening factors; and (3) the degree and purpose of the official misconduct. †(Jackson, 1996) Legal Implications of the Exclusionary Rule The exclusionary rule and the development of its exceptions are of vital legal importance to the people of the United States.The courts have reasoned that illegally obtained evidence can not be used in a trial to do so would be to condone unconstitutional behavior, thereby â€Å"compromising the integrity of the jury. †(Jackson, 1996) The Fourth Amendment is a constraint on the power of the police officers, and gives the officers an incentive to control their power. The exclusionary rule has great legal implications in that it protects American citizens from officers and other State actors who have personal motivations that â€Å"may otherwise be in conflict with Fourth Amendment compliance. (Jackson, 1996) In fact, the Supreme Court has held that the abuses that gave rise to the exclusionary rule featured intentional conduct which was patently unconstitutional. (Herring, 2009)Political & Financial Implications There are political adversaries of the exclusionary rule, who argue that the rule protects criminals. However, studies show that the actual societal cost of the exclusionary rule is relatively small. The cumulative loss in felony cases attributable to Fourth Amendment violations and the subsequent exclusion of evidence is between . 6% and 2. 5%. (Davies, 1983) The exclusionary rule, while seemingly necessary to deter police misconduct, has financial implications in that when evidence is suppressed, the State may be unable to prosecute the case, and not only wastes the time and costs of the police department involved, but also the time and efforts of judges, court employees, and jurors. Interestingly, Mialon found in his study that the exclusionary rule directly reduces searches by police (in that it reduces chances of a s uccessful conviction) and it also indirectly increases them (via an increase in crime).The exceptions that have been carved out help deter these costs by ensuring that the only cases that are affected by the exclusionary rule are those that truly violated the Fourth Amendment rights of the defendant.Sources: Davies, Thomas (1983) A Hard Look at What We Know (and Still Need to Learn) About the â€Å"Costs†of the Exclusionary Rule: The NIJ Study and Other Studies of â€Å"Lost†Arrests. 1983 American Bar Foundation Research Journal 611,622 Evaluation of the Exclusionary Rule. Retrieved November 4, 2010, from http://www. essortment. com/all/exclusionaryrul_rmlx. htm Exclusionary Rule (n. . ). Retrieved November 3, 2010, from http://legal-dictionary. thefreedictionary. com/Exclusionary+Rule Herring v. United States. (2009) 129 S. Ct. 695 (via scholar. google. com)Jackson, Heather. (1996) Arizona v. Evans: Expanding Exclusionary Rule Exceptions and Contracting Fourth Amend ment Protection. The Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, Vol 86, No. 4. Northwestern University School of Law. Mialon, Hugo and Sue Mialon. Abstract on The Effects of the Fourth Amendment: An Economic Analysis. Retrieved November 6, 2010, from http://jleo. oxfordjournals. org/content/24/1/22. abstract
Friday, August 30, 2019
History of Talk Radio Essay
What do we know about the history of talk radio? Has talk radio been successful in helping Americans deal with cultural changes?            Throughout history, radio has been a major source of communication where we were able to hear the latest news and current events of the time period. Through wars, depression, Presidential debates and changing times we were able to turn on the radio and listen to a radio talk show that panned in on these events.            We were able to hear discussions that offered opinions in which we could either agree or disagree and radio talk shows provided a means by which we could be informed on the latest news and events, even before television existed.             [1]â€Å"Can We Talk: The Power and Influence of Talk Showsâ€Å" by Gini Graham Scott†, offers that â€Å"both radio and TV have grown up at a time when America and the whole world have been going through an unprecedented period of turmoil and technologic upheaval.†           Radio, came of age after World War I during the 1920’s and 1930’s, when America was transformed from an isolationist power focused on material growth to a member of a world community which experienced major growth to a member of a world community which experienced major cultural changes and a worldwide depression.            Political forums continue to be a part of talk radio programming in the past and present. In the past, before telephones were invented there was no easy way to communicated with radio personalities, but when telephones emerged, call-in talk radio shows evolved and offered a means to communicated with the radio personalities which made talk radio so much more interesting than before, especially where politics was concerned.            We were able to listen to the opinions of the public on political issues, not just the ones from radio personalities on the talk radio programs. [2] David Barker, Author of the book, â€Å"Rushed to Judgment: Talk Radio Persuasion, and American Political Behavior,† talks about call-in talk radio shows and delves into the question, â€Å"is political talk radio a thing of the past.†Barker says â€Å"some have asked whether this new medium can serve as an agent of deliberative democracy, spurring Americans to form pseudo-communities, where policy choices are debated in an open forum, thus bringing American politics closer to a democratic ideal.             We often wondered if talk radio programs would fade in popularity and just become a thing of the past times. More than ever talk radio has boomed since Howard Stern came on the scene with his outrageous behavior, with comments that were so bold that his personality grabbed the attention of America. He talks about everything from women to politics and doesn’t stifle his views on either.            Now is a good time to evaluate the effects of political talk radio because the medium is no longer a fad and shows no signs of fading. Talk radio offers a setting for new media to be discussed, while people can listen from the convenience of their homes or automobiles.            Given the prominent place of talk radio stations in most markets we have now had the time to critically evaluate the effects of a medium that is not disappearing.            Are news trends changing on talk radio? [3]The website, that answers this question is www.pbs.org/now/politics/talkradio.html. It shows that â€Å"News trends are changing.†            A recent poll showed than an increasing percentage of younger Americans get their news from late night television, and a December 2002 Gallup Poll showed the percentage of Americans who got their news from talk radio has nearly doubled since 1995, from 12 percent to 22 percent.            Was AM talk radio popular by the 1980’s? [4] â€Å"By the 1980’s, AM radio was close to death.† Most listeners had tossed it on the trash heap of technology in favor of FM’s clarity for music. It was Rush Limbaugh who reinvigorated AM radio and gave it a new purpose, paving the way for many talk show hosts who collectively resurrected a bandwidth most were all too happy to ignore.             Religious stations have always been around, in talk radio history?  [5]Soul Talk is a weekly one-hour radio show that has been broadcasting continuously since February of 1996 on Koop 91.7 FM, in Austin Texas. This is just one of many of the religious programs that have broadcasted since radio first arrived on the scene and strong religious beliefs have maintained its stance with Americans.            Soul Talk articulated spiritually from a pluralistic, universal perspective with relevance to current and social and moral issues. The show offers a venue for listeners to share their sacred and ethical beliefs at the radio table, to be encouraged and spurred to action through positive expressions of faith, in a playful setting.         â€Å"What’s Cookin’ with Soul Talk Radio? A Spiritual Feast to leaven the world Soul†can be located at www.soultalkradio.com/.            How much do we know about early talk radio? [6] Early radio news was usually nothing more dramatized documentary of events. Live recordings were unheard of and technology difficult if not impossible. Rather than simply report events, radio producers felt dramatizing the events would bring the news home more effectively.            By 1928, Roy Edward Larsen was the General Manager of Time Magazine. It was Larsen, who, as Circulation Manager, increased sales of the magazine from 25,000 to 200,00 in a few short years. Media theorist, Marshall McLuhan, referred to Larsen as an electric man, sensitive to the latest modes of communication and its impact on society. Larsen involved Time in radio as early as 1924 with a sustaining quiz program called Pop Question. Then in 1928, in cooperation with Time’s Radio Executive, Fred Smith, he began issuing throughout the country over 33 stations daily release of ten minute news briefs drawn from the pages of Time, Larsen called News Casts. The following year they supplemented these News Casts with electrical transcription dramas, ten minutes in length, called News Acting which featured professional actors and sound effects of current news.            What was one of the first talk radio programs? In the year, 1931, â€Å"The University of Chicago Roundtable†broadcast by NBC, where University scholars engaged in intellectual discussion and the show slightly resembled the late phenomenon of talk radio.            Archives, provide talk radio shows from the past.[7] The archives are back! Thanks to the technical wizards of World Talk Radio, all previous shows are once again available for your listening.            World Talk Radio brings you the most renowned Civil War experts and entertaining enthusiasts ever assembled. Check the archives each week for a new and captivating exploration of politics, personalities, and military campaigns.            Civil War Talk Radio is provided to listeners by World Talk Radio and the show host and guests. There is no charge to listen or download, but all contributions and donations are said to be welcomed. You can make contributions at, Contribute to Civil War Talk Radio, Civil War Talk Radio, World Talk Radio, www.worldtalkradio.com/show.asp?sid=150            Talk radio has come a long way in history to finally being capable of displaying and discussing photography.            [8] Photo Talk Radio â€Å"Where you can really see photos on the radio†, the dynamic internet talk show for everyone interested in photography hosted by Howard Lipin and Michael A. Garcia Cr. Photographer, providing you the best information and ideas anywhere to help you make your photography more enjoyable and better than ever.            With nearly 60 years of day-to-day photography experience between them, Howard and Michael bring Photo Talk Radio alive with practical hands-on, simple to understand, â€Å"How Do I Do That? tips and in depth interviews with photo industry leaders and photographers.            Their mission is to keep you informed, inspired and coming back for more. In the ever-changing world of photography, Photo Talk Radio, †The Worldwide Voice of Photography†, and the place â€Å"Where You Really Can See Photos On Radio†is the go-to resource for everyone interested in photography from the enthusiast to the pro.            Photo Talk Radio, World Talk Radio, www.worldtalkradio            Talk Radio shows have been a part of a stage for political opinions, not excluding the war with Iraq.            [9] This week should be remembered for beginning the fifth year of the war in Iraq and for the halting efforts of one chamber of Congress to make Year 5 the last. But, right now, Washington is delighted to be distracted by a new crisis in full boil.            It’s not the controversy over health care for veterans. That one blew up in late February and grew rapidly to national proportions before receding. It will be back, but for the moment it has to become a subject of multiple investigations and editorial hand-wringing.            [10] Many books feature information on talk radio such as a book written by Eric Bogosian, â€Å"The Essential Bogosian : Talk Radio, Drinking, in America, Funhouse and Men Inside.†           The Author writes, â€Å"Reading Talk Radio today is confusing. First of all, there are two Talk Radios: The play and the film.†           Eric Bogosian also says, â€Å"Talk Radio was not based originally on any radio personality.†           Despite its title, Talk Radio is not an in-depth, researched, generic documentary. There is no radio station set up like the one in the play. Instead, he wanted to use the format, one few people had any sense of in 1987, as a launching pad to talk about egos and the mass media in general. He loved the notion of this vast landscape of people, the callers.            He goes on to say, â€Å"I had listened to numerous talk-jocks, particularly Bob Grant and Gary Dee and drew from my pre-teen experience of the legendary Alan Burke and Joe Pyne, two TV talk guys from the sixties with razor blades for tongues. But, when the movie came out, the strangest thing happened, a new guy had showed up and was making big waves soon after the movie came out; his name, of course; Howard Stern.            Radio talk shows have provided entertainment for ourselves and our ancestors and I couldn’t imagine not being able to turn on my radio to listen to a group of people discussing the latest issues or simply just an off-the-wall subject, for the sheer thrill of entertainment purposes.            Talk radio will always be around and with satellites on the scene, radio is becoming even more popular than ever with more and more money being spent on new and updated radio systems and monthly and yearly subscriptions. Scott, Gini Graham, 1996, â€Å"Can We Talk?, The Power and Influence of Talk Shows†Insight Books, Inc. Barker, David, 2002,â€Å"Rushed To Judgment: Talk Radio Persuasion and American Political Behavior†Columbia University Press 2007, Now, Talk Radio, Politics and Economy, www.pbs.org/now/politics/talkradio.html Deitz, Corey, 2004, Right Wing Conservative Talk Show Hosts, Bashing AM And FM What’s Cookin’ With Soul Talk Radio? A Spiritual Feast To Leaven the World Soul, www.soultalkradio.com/ March of Time, www.otr.com/march.html Contribute to Civil War Talk Radio, Civil War Talk Radio, World Talk Radio, www.worldtalkradio.com/show.asp?sid=150 Photo Talk Radio, World Talk Radio, www.worldtalkradio Elving, Ron, 2007, Gonzales: A Timely Distraction For aAll Sides? NPR, Watching Washington, www.npr.org/templates/story/story/php?storyId=9030022 Bogosian, Eric, 1994, â€Å"The Essential Bogosian: Talk Radio, Drinking in America, Funhouse and Men Inside†, Theatre Communications Group, From Author’s Notes, p.3 [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10]
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Climate change(global warming) Article Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
Climate change(global warming) - Article Example The greenhouse gases both absorb and forward the sun’s radiations. Other greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide and water (Archer, 2011). The major contributor to global warming is the burning of fossil fuel. One major contributor to global warming is the motor vehicles’ carbon monoxide emissions (Weart, 2008). Factories produce carbon monoxide gases. The factories and motor vehicles use fossil fuel to produce electricity. Moreover, the thinning of the world’s ozone layer increased global warming. The ozone layer reduces the ill effects of the sun’s incoming radiating rays. Certain products produce CFC by-products. The CFCs reduce the earth’s ozone layer. With the thinning of the ozone layer, there is an increase in the quantity of the unfavorable incoming harmful sun’s rays (Archer, 2011). Global warming has significantly unfavorable effects on California’s agricultural environment. California’s greenhouse gases reduce the earth’s emission of infrared rays, triggering global warming. California’s greenhouse gases reduce the sun’s dangerous rays from being reflected by the earth’s surface back into outer space, increasing California’s temperature. The fossil fuel emitted by California’s motor vehicles contributes to California’s global warming statistics (Archer, 2011). Consequently, California’s global warming, melting its snow sources, triggers lower water availability. Specifically, Southern California experienced a 26 percent water source reduction. Sacramento suffered a 24 percent water source reduction. San Joaquin continues to bear the 23 percent water decline. With less water, California suffers from possible food production decline. Consequently, farms must spend more to acquire the required plant water. The increasing water cost precipitates to higher California food prices. With higher food prices, less people can afford to have a full meal. Lesser demand reduces farm profits
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
How has gender inequality been explained (Answer with reference to a Essay
How has gender inequality been explained (Answer with reference to a range of theories and approaches) Critically assess the at - Essay Example It is from the conflict school that feminism emerged. Feminist movements seek to address the â€Å"oppression†of women. Actually, there are also articulations that describe an interaction among class, race, and gender but, unfortunately, this is not covered by this write-up. Moreover, there are ecofeminists that are radical as well as environmental but this is also not covered by this report. II. Perspective on Gender Inequality: Theories and Approaches Macionis and Plummer (2008, pp. 615-616) pointed out that functionalist perspectives on sociology describe gender inequality as fulfilling a function of set of functions in society. They cited, for instance, that a leading functionalist sociologist, Talcott Parsons, pointed out that â€Å"the family operates most efficiently with a clear-cut division of labour in which the females act in expressive roles, providing care and security to children and offering them emotional support†(Macionis and Plummer 2008, p. 615). Fo r Parsons, male on the other hand perform instrumental roles or those related to breadwinning in the family (Macionis and Plummer 2008, p. 615). John Bowlby, another functionalist sociologist emphasized the role of the mother is in the primary socialization of the children (Macionis and Plummer 2008, p. 615). Macionis and Plummer (2008, p. ... According to Macionis and Plummer (2008, p. 617), radical feminists vary in perspectives but â€Å"most agree that it involves the appropriation of women’s bodies and sexuality in some form†. For instance, the usual conceptions of beauty and sexuality are supposedly impositions on women by men at the latter create or construct a particular notion of what is feminine and impose it on society. Beasley (1999, p. 51-64) pointed out that there are several types of feminism: liberal, radical, Marxist/socialist, and socialist feminism. According to Beasley, liberal feminism is the more popular form of feminism (p. 51). Beasley (1999, p. 51) described that this form of feminism is the â€Å"moderate†or the â€Å"mainstream†form of feminism. In the liberal feminism, the explanation for gender inequality is described in terms of unequal rights or â€Å"artificial barriers†to women’s participation in the political or decision-making process. In the l iberal feminist thought, there is an emphasis on mainstreaming or putting the feminist agenda for equal rights on the legal, political and institutional fronts (Beasley 1999, p. 51). According to Beasley (1999, p. 51), the position of liberal feminists is that women should â€Å"compete in the public marketplace†(Beasley 1999, p. 51). For liberal feminists, equality of women with men in the public arena is the core of the liberal feminist agenda (Beasley 1999, p. 52). The liberal feminists hold that men and women are the same and, thus, have equal rights (Beasley 1999, p. 52). Liberal feminists emphasized on reform rather than change via a revolution (Beasley 1999, p. 52). In Beasley’s words (1999, p. 52), liberal feminists â€Å"want what
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Final examiantion Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words
Final examiantion - Essay Example A failed marketing campaign has the potential to sink a small business, whereas a large business can write it off as an acceptable loss. The second biggest difference is in the form of staff. Large business have the luxury of many different departments, with each manned by a number of individuals. In smaller business, the manager of the firm may have to take on several key roles, thus limiting his or her ability to be effective in the marketing role. Finally, the last difference in marketing centers on creativity. Large business often have a lot more contacts in the industry, so their marketing campaigns are more likely to be effective with the market. On the other hand, small businesses do not have the leverage to be creative and often have to design unimaginative yet effective marketing campaigns. 3) Marketing strategies that engage with the customer are the most effective for improving service quality for a small business. Small businesses often do not have large marketing budgets , but that is no excuse for not trying to make a connection with the customer. The great thing about small businesses is than customers often gravitate towards them because of the increased face-to-face interaction. The product or service on offer does influence the marketing strategy to be used. Products or services that require technical expertise will often need to have extensive instruction manuals or allow the customer to inquire further. 4) Social media is a great way for any business to make use of technology to better market itself. There are many benefits to a company being actively involved online, such as the low cost associated with it and also the potential to reach a wide market. Consumers prefer marketing that meets them at a place where they feel comfortable with, and many younger people spend hours on social media sites each week. For a company looking to promote itself, the use of social media is a great way to do so because much of the work can be done by customer s of the brand. For example, on Facebook getting comments or likes on company status updates can attract new customers who are friends with people who like the brand. The potential for businesses to use social media is almost endless. 5) The term customer lifetime value (CLV) refers to the monetary value that a company can gain from a particular customer over the course of their lifetime. Measuring CLV can be a difficult procedure over many years due to inflation and changing customer spending power. Comparing data over many decades presents its own challenges because there is no one way to correlate the data over time periods. Firms use CLV in order to determine if it is worth it to spend heavily on consumer marketing campaigns. If there is very little to be gained from capturing a customer, then it would not make sense to pursue that customer through marketing campaigns. Instead of treating customers like people, the CLV thinks of them as assets and determines debits and credits o n both sides of the equation. Despite this, it is an important part of any business because of the need to weigh up the costs and benefits associated with maintaining a relationship with a loyal customer. 6) 7) When determining how a product reaches a customer, it is important to consider the effectiveness of it and also the costs involved. Customers appreciate a timely delivery once they have ordered a product, and their reaction to it will determine whether they will be a returning customer or not. A
Monday, August 26, 2019
Posts Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
Posts - Term Paper Example to minimize the chances of the researcher moving out of the topic as research based on what the researcher had learnt in the undergraduate course (Carnegie, 1998). Thus this would ease the search for information as the researcher would have all the required source of information. This information would ease efforts to conduct the research than if he/she was researching on a topic not relevant to his/ her degree. I disagree with choosing a topic based on profundity and breadth. The main reason being the requirement is how much evidence the researcher provides. This may be darned much possible for a topic having short profundity and breadth given the researcher is able to gather large quantity of information required to support argument raised. The same study for a topic with large profundity and breath may have immense trouble to accomplish if the researcher is unable to gather enough evidence to support the argument. Data collected during the research may be enough but still fail to satisfy the requirement of the topic researched. Thus the size of the topic being for which research I conducted may not be of substantial necessity in conducting the research. I agree that, to source for a sufficient amount of pertinent information is extremely importance in conducting the study. This evidenced by the fact that for any research being conducted it is a prime requirement to have sufficient information (See, 2012). It evidenced that plenty of information provides enough proof to support the topic under which one is carrying a research. Sufficient information is a crucial aspect to the research, completion of search for pertinent information clearly indicates that one is almost completing the project. This being the most expensive stage of research requires one to purchase several materials, do printing, fill questionnaire and prepare for the presentation. Qualifying the presentation stage shows that the research was successful and thus the information obtained was
Sunday, August 25, 2019
Alan Greenspan - Biography Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words
Alan Greenspan - Biography - Term Paper Example Alan Greenspan’s father was employed as a market analyst and stockbroker in New York City. Greenspan was brought up by his mother (Miller, 2011). In 1944, after graduating from Juilliard School, Alan Greenspan was rejected for military service by a draft board in downtown Manhattan. This is because he had a mark on his lung that seemed like tuberculosis. Alan Greenspan had no plans for the future. From an early period, Alan Greenspan had a lot of interest in music. He is also presumed to be well acquitted with mathematical knowledge early in his existence. Alan Greenspan pursued his interest in music by joining the Juilliard School of dance, drama and music. It was at this point that he auditioned to play the clarinet for Henry Jerome’s band. During this time, Alan Greenspan further advanced his talent in music and later on traveled around with Henry Jerome and his music group (Martin, 2000). He got the opportunity to become a member of Henry Jerome’s band, but h e did not become a celebrity. During the tour with Henry Jerome and his music group, Alan Greenspan played the clarinet and saxophone. Nevertheless, his talents with numbers made him handle the band member’s taxes and the band’s financial records. ... Alan Greenspan went to George Washington High School from 1940 to 1943 when he graduated. He was classmates with John Kemeny. Alongside with classmate Stan Getz, Greenspan played the saxophone and clarinet. He continued studying clarinet from 1943 to 1944 at the Juilliard School. After the end of the war, Alan Greenspan enrolled at New York University for economics. A number of his classmates found it difficult to comprehend concerns relating to economics, but Alan Greenspan was highly interested in equations and numbers. While he was there, Greenspan got two degrees, one in 1948, and a Masters degree in economics in 1950. Later on, at Columbia University, he pursued advanced economics under the guidance of Arthur Burns but dropped out. He failed to complete his PhD at Columbia University because he was not able to afford tuition (Miller, 2011). In the early part of 1950s, Alan Greenspan established an association with the philosopher and famed novelist, Ayn Rand. His wife, Joan Mitc hell, introduced him to Rand. Moreover, Rand gave Greenspan the name, Undertaker, because of his reserved demeanor and liking for dark clothing. Although Greenspan was at the outset a logical positivist, he was moved to Objectivism, Rand’s philosophy, by Nathaniel Branden. In the period of 1950s and 1960s, Alan Greenspan became a supporter of Objectivism. He wrote articles for Objective newsletters and contributed a number of essays for Rand’s book. Among the essays he wrote was an essay that supported the gold standard. Rand and Greenspan stood side by side during the Council of Economic Advisers swearing-in, and they remained friends till 1982 when Rand died (Miller, 2011). In 1951, Alan Greenspan met Joan Mitchell; they
Saturday, August 24, 2019
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management Essay
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management - Essay Example On the other hand, the intuition for the growth stocks that the stocks have higher prices in the market compared to their book value creates the definition. These findings were made when the two scholars Fama and French tested the leverages, book market ratios and price earnings ratios among others in an effort to examine the Capital Asset Pricing Module. 2. Factors explaining stock returns. The Capital Asset Pricing Model is a method published in 1992 and that has been popular in portfolio management. Analysis has brought it to question since the model does not satisfy the questions of stock management entirely (Yue et al 2006). The limitations of CAPM lie in the assumption that investors need measure only a single risk that will determine the sensitivity of market returns. The model required to be efficient is therefore supposed to address a number of factors that pose as a risk to security management (Fama and French). The measures should address sensitivity of the market returns by distinguishing small stock risks over risks posed by larger stocks. The new measures implemented by Fama and French have proved to be efficient in large stocks but have not been measured on the small stocks yet from lack of access to the data on security. The research by Fama and French is applicable in the international market as well as the local portfolios in the United States (Carson et al 1999). A market risk factor and a value risk factor provided are means to explain average returns in the stocks internationally (Cohen 1967). Measured by Fama and French, the returns on an international portfolio market of stocks provide the measure of the market risk factor while the difference in the returns on the high book to market and low book to market measures the value risk factor (Case 2011). The CAPM limitations lay in the assumptions that every investor is rational in his expectations , there is a normal distribution of returns, the production and financial sectors are separated , quantity of assets is fixed, the capital market is of perfect efficiency and the risk free rates of borrowing and lending are equal (Bossaerts 2002). These assumptions among others greatly counter the realities of the markets and security and provide erroneous conclusions that create the impression that the state of the portfolios is of high standard when it is not (Fischer 1979). According to French and Fama the idea of Capital Asset Pricing Model creates a system that oversimplifies the entire process of security analysis while leaving out vital steps that create large assumptions in the long run. For example, the distribution of returns argues that all investors see the same opportunities; the model assumes the risks created by other factors on the investor while making his decisions to invest therefore ends up overlooking those risks (Case 2011). The argument of the CAPM lacks any link to the situation of real life events and practicality. The major assumptions made overlook t he important aspects of the markets rather than create a weighted concern for it and the details of stocks. Since theories and models are not necessarily perfect, the overlooked matters should address the less sensitive situations that would cause much less damage or none on the investors in the end and not the other
Critically appraise the impact of the development of tourism, over a Essay
Critically appraise the impact of the development of tourism, over a period of time, on the visual culture of a destination of your choice - Essay Example n addition, the range of influence from tourism is broad and always influence areas that are beyond those that are commonly associated with the tourism. Moreover, leaders and residents who do understand the potential influences of tourism could integrate this sector into the community in the positive way (Kreag, 2001). However, not all influences can be applicable to each community due to conditions or resources that might differ. Tourism and community leaders should balance influence that might either improve or negatively affect residents and communities. Leaders should be visionary and sensitive, and should avoid the temptation of glossing over certain challenges tourism development can create. The tourism sector needs to also balance the concerns and opportunities of all community by working against all the conditions where positive influences benefit one section of the community, and negative impacts hurt the other. Conversely, a sensitivity of the community tourism translates to avoiding burdens on the industry that can thwart its success (Lindber & Johnson, 1997). Local leaders need not expect tourism to resolve all community issues. Tourism is just a one element of the community. Creation of the strategic development of tourism services and amenities could enhance the community or correct tourism or local deficiencies, for instance, all the business development, need to assure that its products attract customers. Overbearing restrictions and rules, as well as overburdening taxes, would make tourism businesses to be less competitive or attractive. The destination that would be critically examined is the Cannes in France. The Cannes view port of the famous Boulevard de la Croisette that is situated in the Cannes Middle Ages was a feudal defence of Lerins monastery. However, until early 19th century, Cannes remained very small fishing and agricultural village with the high density of population on the Le Suquet hill. However, during the start of 1830s,
Friday, August 23, 2019
Marketing Plan format for Adidas MiCoach Smart Run Research Paper
Marketing Plan format for Adidas MiCoach Smart Run - Research Paper Example t Run, there have been some of the improvements that the innovators would have to bring forth to ensure that that the athletes are able to enjoy features like MP3 music storage, and the connectivity to the wireless headphones. By the use of the miCoach device, individuals are able to recognize the running potential that they have and work towards achieving the potentials. One of the approaches that have been exploited with the use of the device to assess feedback and to monitor progress is through the Run Score. Ones Run Score allows them to track the progress that they are making make comparison of their progress with others as well as make prediction of the performance they would make in the future. The best way for individuals to get their Run Score is for them to take a free run. Free run result is assigned as a particular Run Score on a scale that runs between 0-1000. 0 usually represents a walking pace, while 1000 represents a world’s record. It is based on these a achievements that miCoach provides an individual with some prediction of race times. One way that the Adidas has ensured that evaluation process of the miCoach is successful is through the recommendation and links of the training plan that they offer to the athletes. This recommendation helps the athletes to achieve their training goals. The athletes are advised to take free run throughout their training and thus be in a position to reevaluate and update their run scores. Improvement is determined by the increased run scores. This translates into increased fitness level as well as the prediction of race performance. The goal of miCoach is to give the users, real time and personalized training and coaching plan. This has allowed Adidas to make considerations in what features to add on the device to ensure that athletes benefit more. This is the difference between the sales and the cost of goods that have been sold, divided by the company’s revenue. Adidas sells the miCoach at $399.
Thursday, August 22, 2019
Recommendations to the Wallace Group Essay Example for Free
Recommendations to the Wallace Group Essay I have concluded my interviews with your team and have a list of recommendations based on priorities. The recommendations are unbiased and not intended to be personal attacks on the current management; they are based on the sound management principles and intended to maximize your company’s potential. a. Realign the corporate structure. Begin by recruiting a new board of directors using outside directors, â€Å"executives of other firms but are not employees of the board’s corporation†1, in addition to a limited number of management directors from inside the company. This combination of three companies working as independent entities is not working, they must be integrated and a different management organizational structure must be implemented. This group will be able to accomplish the next recommendation. b. Develop a mission statement and goals. The company must embark upon strategic management planning. This will include: †¢Clearer sense of strategic vision for the firm †¢Sharper focus on what is strategically important Improved understanding of a rapidly changing environment1 The Wallace group lacks vision and goals for its divisions and this leads to a lack of direction for the management team. A mission statement â€Å"defines the fundamental, unique purpose that sets a company apart from other firms of its type and identifies the scope of the company’s operations in terms of products offered and markets served†1. This business must develop a corporate wide strategic management plan to set a direction for the company and its shareholders. A part of this management planning would consist of SWOT analysis, strategy formulation, implementation and evaluation. This process is often referred to as Plan – Do – Act – Check or PDAC and is a continuous process. Making a profit today is not enough; there has to be an evaluation of where the company is now, where will it be in 2, 5, 10 years and how the company will attain those goals. c. Change the organizational chart: There needs to be an in-depth evaluation of the personnel currently in place. The current chart is one of vertical structure and should be revamped to be more horizontal. This accomplishes the goals of empowerment and coordination between the divisions. A glaring problem is the VP of the chemical division, J. Luskics, as he was the former owner that guided the company into foreclosure and appears to not be running the division efficiently now. The chemical division is not even internally competitive for the plastics or electronics divisions. Mr.Luskics should either be bought out of the company or reassigned to a position that he might be successful. There also is a redundancy among positions in the company, for example there are three directors of industrial relations, these positions should either be combined or incentivized to cooperate in the best interest of the company. d. Personnel development. There is no apparent leadership development in place and the company has relied on promoting technical staff to management positions which many are not equipped to handle. There needs to be a leadership development series initiated, leadership retreats to communicate and encourage relations amongst the teams, and perhaps some Management Assessment of Proficiency (MAP) testing to asses the current management team. Management development and succession planning must be implemented to ensure long term success. Job responsibilities need to be developed and implemented for all positions but specifically for the management team; including specific goals, budgeting, forecasting (long range planning), training, and staff satisfaction. . Communication. The lack of clear strategies, long term plans, goals and objectives has led to the recent revolt at the stockholders meeting. This is a clear indication of the frustration felt from the staff level up and the new direction of the company must be clearly communicated to all staff. Enthusiasm is contagious and the presentation of a new course for the company will be very exciting for staff. Employee surveys, sugges tion boxes and an engaging of the front line staff will do much to improve morale and spark improvements. I would like to commend you sir for creating a successful company but I do believe there are concrete steps that you can take to improve the future of this company. Mr. Wallace I believe the development of a vision will produce great results, with this vision you will attract personnel that want to be a part of a great company and profits for all involved will naturally follow. Remember â€Å"Visionary companies make some of their best moves by experimentation, trial and error, opportunism, and – quite literally – accident†2. I estimate that this plan of action will initially cost $1. 5 million but there will be cost savings realized in personnel reassignments, recruitment and retention, productivity, and a renewed sense of commitment that will be reflected in profits far surpassing the costs.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
British Airways Organisational Planning
British Airways Organisational Planning Introduction The purpose of this report is to identify different types of planning that organisations use in order to achieve there objectives and goals. This report will also evaluate the purposes and benefits of formal planning in relation to the chosen organisation, British Airways. Organisations set goals as a way of expressing what they would hope the business to achieve in the future. A goal can be best described as A desired state of affairs which an organisation attempts to realise. (Etzioni 1964, p 6). Mission planning is similar to that of setting goals but these aims are somewhat vaguer and are usually on a more global level (Barney and Griffin, 1992). Goals and mission statements along with effective decision making are essential tools that organisations can use to plan what the direction the company will follow in order to exploit its maximum potential and ensure success. This main part of this report will look at the different types of plans that organisations may use. It will also highlight the types of information that may be sought by organisations, such as British Airways, and the ways in which that information could be gathered to inform planning. British Airways The chosen company for the purpose of this assignment is the airline and holiday company, British Airways. British Airways is a Public Limited Company. The current name and structure was established in 1976, although previous ventures date back to 1910. It is the UKs largest international scheduled airline. The British Airways group consists of British Airways Plc and a number of subsidiary companies, for example British Airways Holidays Ltd. The company are affected by three main environmental factors these are: Minimising Carbon Emissions and noise pollution. Competition from budget airlines. Increasing safety procedures for passengers These environmental factors have been incorporated into the mission statement of B.A which is Our vision is to become the worlds most responsible and safe airline and not only to be seen as just a UK carrier, but a global airline that is based in Britain (Chief Executive, British Airways Annual Report 2007/2008). Also within the annual report, B.A has set out three main goals that they hope to achieve within a three year time scale. These are: To be established within Terminal 5, at London Heathrow. To order new aircraft for their fleet. To be the employer of choice within the airline market. Purpose and Potential Benefits of Formal Planning. While some organisations use informal planning (usually smaller companies), it is for the most part, formal planning that is used. The purpose of formal planning in organisations is to give clear guidelines of what a company hopes to achieve and to provide direction and a timescale for these achievements to be accomplished. Plans also give a purpose to the people within in organisations (i.e. management and employees) as they provide what is expected from those involved and give them targets to work towards. Effective planning can help the organisation run smoothly as they provide a step by step approach to what needs to be done. Planning in organisations is normally done at management level and according to Henri Fayol (1916) it is one of 5 major functions that management should undertake. According to Boddy there are four main benefits of planning (2005). These are; plans can clarify direction, motivate people, help use resources efficiently and provide a way to measure progress. However planning has many more benefits such as it allows managers within organisations to establish where the organisation is at, at any given time. Plans also promote teamwork within managers and employees as the plan may specify that certain groups of people are required to work on a task, when in the absence of a plan those people might have undertaken tasks individually, this will also see that targets and goals are met quicker. These benefits of planning will only be evident if it is carried out correctly. If plans are not properly drawn up or implemented they have the effect of wasting time and resources, it can also lead to the lack of staff motivation. It is therefore essential that plans are thought over carefully and that those making them understand that they must be achievable and realistic. With reference to the British Airways, it can been seen that planning is essential in relation to them achieving there goals. For example BA have just released their plans for the next 3 years entitled BP11 (BA annual report, 2007/2008). This 3 year plan sets out what they are aiming to achieve and how they want to achieve it. It is important for BA to draw up planning reports so that shareholders and staff understand what is expected to happen both in the short term and the long term. Types of Plans. There are many different types of planning that organisations can use. For the purpose of this report three different types of planning that may be beneficial to British Airways will be discussed. Business Plan This is a document that sets out what markets the business intends to operate in, how it will do so and what finance they require (Blackwell, 2004). These plans are mainly used to provide information for shareholders and to generate interest from investors who may be willing to help fund a project set out in the plan. This is shown in British Airways business plan, it states that they want to expand their fleet of aircraft subject to raising the appropriate finances. Issuing this as a plan may attract people who want to invest or increase their shareholders as shows that the airline is going to expand. Business plans can also be used in an organisation for internal purposes. For example lower level management may need to get financial support from more senior levels and will need to provide a business plan to show what they intend to do with any given funds. Strategic Plan These are plans for the whole organisation not just individual departments. A strategic plan can be described as determining the basic long term goals and objectives of an enterprise and the adoption of courses of action and the allocation of resources for carrying out these goals (Chandler, 1962). This basically means the organisation will identify where it wants to be and which route it must take in order to get there. The basis for British Airways strategic plan can be seen in their mission statement. The statement illustrates where the airline wants to end up and what they have to achieve in order to meet these goals. Specific Plan This type of plan is exactly what is says, specific. They are concise, and to the point, because of this they are easy to follow and they leave little room for error. An example of a specific plan can be seen when referring to BA. They have a plan to cut their carbon emissions by 7% by 2011 (annual report, 2007/2008). This plan is short and simple and would be easy for the whole company and its shareholders to understand. Specific plans will not work in situations where the future is unpredictable due to their lack of flexibility (Boddy, 2005 p 170). Information Required and How to Gather it. In order for organisations to create plans they need to gather information. The information must of the right kind if it is to be used in planning to ensure efficiency as wrong information will be costly to rectify. Information can be gathered from a number of sources by using informal or formal analysis. The main types of information that will be sought by BA would be information about their competitors and information about customers. This is because British Airways aim to be the airline of choice (annual report 2007/2008) so information regarding the customers thoughts of aspects such as service are vital. BAs main threat come from competitors so they would want information on them in order to see what they are offering that might steal custom. British Airways gather their information using a formal analysis approach. The types of formal analyses they will use are Industry surveys, Market research (by way of questionnaires provided on their flights and on their web-site), the SWOT analysis model (see appendix 1) and the PESTEL analysis model (see appendix 2). Conclusion To conclude this report, it can be seen that planning is a must for any organisation. If applied correctly, planning can inevitable help the organisation fulfil its mission and goals in a smooth and efficient manner. The type of plan to use will depend highly on the organisation and what it wants to achieve, although most organisations such as British Airways will use a variety of planning types. Gathering useful and relevant information is paramount to effective and precise planning as if the information is not of the right kind or incorrect plans will be made on the wrong basis which may be detrimental to the organisation in the future. References Barney, J B and R W Griffin., 1992. The Management of Organisations: Strategy, Structure and Behaviour. In: D, Rollinson, eds, Organisational Behaviour. Essex, England. Prentice Hall, p 432. Blackwell, E., 2004. How to Prepare a Business Plan. (4th Edition). London, Kogan Page. Boddy, D., 2005. Management an Introduction. Essex, England. Pearson Education, p 170. Chandler, A.D. 1962. Strategy and Structure. In: D, Boddy. Management an Introduction. Essex, England. Pearson Education, p 169. Etzioni, A., 1964. Modern Organisations. In: D, Rollinson, eds, Organisational Behaviour. Essex, England. Prentice Hall, p 431. Fayol, H., 1916. General and Industrial Management. In: D, Rollinson, eds, Organisational Behaviour. Essex, England. Prentice Hall, p 512. Willie Walsh,CEO, British Airways Annual Report 2007/2008
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Evaluating Statements Made By Criminal Profiling Criminology Essay
Evaluating Statements Made By Criminal Profiling Criminology Essay The purpose of this essay is to critically evaluate the statement made by Hicks Sales in their paper on Criminal Profiling: Developing an Effective Science and Practice (2006) that Profilers have a substantial and sustained contribution to make to criminal investigations It is this authors opinion that the field of offender profiling, or criminal personality profiling is, put quite simply, educated guesswork and is not an exact science. However, in many criminal cases, typically those of a violent nature, it has proved useful to the authorities involved by providing a psychological glimpse of, or an insight to, the offender, or criminal mind that committed the offence. Prior to 1986, profiling was not in common usage by police forces in the UK and it was the first offender profile created in the UK by a professor of applied psychology at Surrey University, David Canter, in the case of the Railway Killer, John Duffy, that led to the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) setting up a special committee to discuss the results of the Duffy case. In that case, Professor Canter composed a psychological profile of the killer that was accurate on 13 out of the 17 points he made. This was hailed as a breakthrough in the psychological understanding of criminal behaviour and as a result of the special committee meeting a research project was established, led by Canter, to draw up a proper framework for criminal profiling. (Murder Casebook, 1991, p2681) Offender profiling should be understood to consist of a range of methods used to develop advice for investigators, based on the study of behaviour exhibited in the commission of crime(s) and the drawing of inferences about the offender(s). Association of Chief Police Officers policy on offender profiling from the University of Portsmouth Offender Profiling course handbook, p6 In further accordance with the ACPO guidelines on offender profiling for England Wales, it may be considered useful so long as the profile is treated with caution. This author suggests a created criminal profile should not be used to lead an investigation, but may support lines of enquiry relating to the investigation. As already mentioned, there have been many criminal cases resulting in convictions, in which offender profiling has proven useful as an investigative aid, but it should also be noted that there are some cases where an attempt at psychological profiling has proved more a hindrance to an investigation, either by diverting resources away from capturing the actual criminal or creating avenues of fruitless research. For example Richard Jewell as the US Olympic Park bombing suspect in 1996, and in the UK, again in 1996, the case against Colin Stagg in the Rachel Nickel murder. Both were suspected by law enforcement and subsequently treated badly by the media, as a direct result of offender profiles that had been created. Both Jewell and Stagg later successfully claimed monetary compensation from various media corporations that had cast aspersions on their involvement in the two cases cited. (http://medialibel.org/cases-conflicts/tv/jewell.html) and (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/aug/13 /law) In the case of Colin Stagg, the use of deception and false pretences and a profile developed by Dr Paul Britton, at the time the head of the Trent Regional Forensic Psychology Service, resulted in evidence presented to the court being dismissed. Britton (1997, p537) himself has written; the notion of a psychological profile being admissible as proof of identity in any circumstances was redolent with considerable danger. Whilst the profile created by Britton may have accurately portrayed the type of person who could have committed this type of crime, it could not be used as evidence in a court of law that this is the person who committed the crime. Ormerod (1996) agrees, and states both that profiles should be treated as opinion and not as statement of fact, also he writes; Profile evidence generates great prejudice for the accused who possessed the stated characteristics, yet it is insufficiently probative to point to the accused as being the guilty man Referring back to Canters first psychological profile, accurate on 13 out of 17 points, again this appears to be an indication that offender profiling is not an exact science as his assertions were 76.47% accurate, certainly a good indicator but not proof beyond reasonable doubt. A scientific experiment should be reproducible, providing the same results regardless of the individual conducting the experiment. With offender profiling, differing results may be induced, or deduced, depending on the education, experience and knowledge of the person creating the profile. The UK Coals to Newcastle (CTN) project (1995), jointly developed by the London Metropolitan Police and the Home Office, aimed to provide operational assistance to law enforcement in the investigation of serious crimes, as well as attempt to develop offender profiling as a science. (Gudjonsson Copson, 1997) The main question asked by the CTN project was that of whether or not that profiling told an investigating officer only what he or she already knew, or if it could provide information that could assist with an investigation. The report did show that of the 184 instances covered by the project, 88 of them were dealt with by only two individuals, an academic psychologist and a clinical psychologist, both of whom had been accredited by the chief police officers committee. (Gudjonsson Copson, 1997). The qualifications held by profilers used by law enforcement tend to be in the fields of psychology and psychiatry, for example Dr Paul Britton specialised in psychopathology and sexual dysfunction and Professor David Canter in applied psychology, later developing the field of investigative psychology. (www.ia-ip.org) So, it is here, that this author feels that proof is presented, that education plays a vital and important role in the development of a profiler, especially if one is to be accredited for use by the police in the UK. Professor David Canter, in his paper on Offender profiling and criminal differentiation (2000), notes that there are some promising results shown in some areas of study and that these results are most likely to be of value to police investigations if the police officers are trained accordingly and that the methods described are utilized during the construction of the systems that can support the decision making process. It was Canters development of the Radex model (2000) that attempted to offer a different approach to classifying criminal behaviour by identifying dominant themes in behaviour rather than oversimplifying criminals into certain types. Figure 1 shows a general model for a radex as applied to criminal actions with, at its centre, actions that may be considered typical of all criminals and moving to the periphery, actions that are more specific. Figure 2 is a representation that attempts to distinguish the different qualities of behavioural science in criminal behaviour. The Radex model proved useful to Hodge (1998) and lent to the conclusion during her analysis of spatial patterns in serial murder that in crimes of extreme violence there is likely to be a substantial level of interpersonal interaction between victim and offender. Source: Canter (2000) Offender profiling and criminal differentiation It was Canter Heritages published study of rape in 1990 that first demonstrated the existence of a radial structure for crime and that using a multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis by correlating the variables collected, they were able to represent these correlations in relation to each other allowing for trends, patterns and a behavioural salient analysis of criminal behaviour. This method of analysis may be described as inductive criminal profiling, in that the information gathered is from limited population samples and is not going to be specifically related to any one single case. Also, inductive profiles can be rather generalised and tend to be averaged from the data. Information is only collected from those offenders that have already been caught and this author notes; from those who agree to interview or answering a prepared questionnaire and those captured offenders that are actually capable of doing so. This would seem to indicate that there is going to be a possibility that those individuals with either no speech or understanding and certain social dysfunctional disorders may have difficulty comprehending the nature of the questioning and would therefore be unable to provide reliable answers. Also, there must be some consideration to the fact that they may not actually tell the truth. In addition, the most skilful and perhaps, most intelligent criminals that avoid being caught are not going to be included in the data set. As a result, information could be missing from the criminal profile. (Turvey, 2001) In contrast to inductive profiling, deductive offender profiling relies on the examination of scenes of crime, forensic evidence as well as behavioural motivation for criminal behaviour in relation to a single crime. This is the source for the many successful drama and crime shows on television and film, including Cracker, the CSI series, Criminal Minds and Silence of the Lambs, where, on TV, they usually solve the crime within the hour. This could possibly lead to a false impression in the public eye of just how effective and fast paced offender profiling really is. Deductive profiling takes time and relies on several aspects when the profile is created, such as the offenders emotional state during the offense, patterns of behaviour and personality characteristics at the crime scene as well as a study into the choice of the offenders victim, known as victimology. (Kocsis, 2006) In 1973, Howard Teten, Pat Mullany and Robert Ressler of the FBI used the then new criminal investigative analysis techniques to create a profile of a white, young, male, peeping tom with sexual and homicidal tendencies that led directly to the arrest of David Meirhofer for the abduction and murder of a seven year old girl. The 1978 FBI profile of the so-called Vampire of Sacramento, Richard Chase, was created following a study of the disorder of the crime scene, body type and mental temperament and concluded that the offender was disorganized, hed be unemployed, live alone, would be ethnically white, thin, undernourished and his mid-twenties. (Lerner Lerner, 2006) Deductive reasoning is useful in establishing a Modus Operandi (MO) and the signature of a particular criminal. Geberth (1996) defined both the MO and signature as being a dynamic method of operation that changes over time as the offender becomes more experienced and that the significant personal identifiers can distingui sh the nature of the offenders crime scenes and methodology respectively. The classification of offenders as being either organised or disorganised (Ressler et al, 1995) has been debated and Turvey (2001) dismisses this dichotomy of organised versus disorganised for several reasons, including that of psychopathy being a complex personality disorder and should not be assumed simply by the lack of psychotic behaviour or evidence. A disorganised crime scene could be the result of non-psychotic events, such as those created in domestic violence, anger-retaliatory offences, those that involve the use of controlled substances and those scenes that have been changed by the offender for the purpose of staging a crime or possibly as an anti-forensics exercise. Turvey further states that this false dichotomy as he describes it, does not take into account the fact that an offender may learn from their mistakes and/or successes and subsequently may develop and modify their criminal behaviour with experience. The 2004 study by Canter, Alison, Alison and Wentnik of serial killer behaviour through secondary sources showed that most offenders will exhibit, and the crime scene may reveal, a mix of both organised and disorganised characteristics. For example, whilst an attack may initially start as a premeditated organised assault, if it deteriorates or an unexpected event occurs, such as the inability to control a victim, it may lead to an escalation in the level of violence. It is also noted that Canter et al proposed the offenders emotional state, victim resistance and the fact that more than one offender is involved may create a different emergent patterns. The Behavioural Analysis Unit (BAU) of the American Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is the result of the initial development by Howard Teten and Pat Mullany in 1969 to try and explain the actions and behavioural characteristics of violent offenders. Robert Ressler, who invented the term serial killer (Murder Casebook, p4311) was responsible for founding the National Center for Analysis of Violent Crime (NCAVC) and it is within this section of the FBI that the BAU is a component. Whilst popularised in the media, and specifically the current American CBS TV series, Criminal Minds, it is noted that, despite their appearance on TV and in film, there is no position with the title of Profiler within the FBI. (www.fbijobs.gov/114.asp) The FBI utilises this deductive style of profiling and appears to rely less on clinical psychology methodology than perhaps the British profilers do and has over time created a considerable knowledge base that is used to assist Federal, state, local and international law enforcement agencies. According to former FBI Special Agent Gregg McCrary, and contributing author to the Crime Classification Manual (1992), the FBI methodology is based upon investigators trying to collect information about the offender including the what was the antecedent, or trigger, for the events that took place, the method and manner of the victim and attack, information relating to the disposal, or not, of the victim as well as post-offence behaviour, such as being close to the investigation and contacting investigators or attempting to inject themselves in to proceedings. The FBI methodology for profiling violent crime is a four stage process beginning with the collection of data at the scene, forensic anal ysis and also coroner, autopsy and witness reports. Next, the methodology involves classifying and then reconstructing the crime through experienced observations about the MO, signature and motivation for the offence. This will include trying to ascertain why the offender chose this particular victim on this particular day, why they used the tools they did and also the whether the motivation for the crime was that of power reassurance or assertiveness or anger in a retaliatory or excitational way. That is to say, the observations raised will look to answer whether the offender could be a serial psychosexual sadistic killer or if the crime was one of passion or revenge. The final stage of the FBI methodology is that of creating the profile and this may well involve demographic information, educational background and intellectual functioning, family and personality characteristics, legal and arrest history, habits and social interests as well as any evidence in relation to the actual scene of the crime. (Shalev, 2010) Offender profiling and crime analysis can also be aided by profiling the geography of an area in which a crime was committed. Research by Holmes Holmes (2002) attempted to define crime scene locations as being either an encounter site, an attack site, a crime site or a victim and vehicle disposal site. This, when combined with information previously gathered, may give clues as to the residence of an offender and assist with creating the overall criminal profile. Rossmo (2000) had earlier defined geographic profiling as a methodology that can be used to identify locations connected to a series of crimes that may determine the most likely area of residence for an offender. In conclusion, the author would like to return to the assertion made at the beginning of this essay, that offender profiling is educated guesswork. It has been shown through this essay that education, as well as experience, or life education, plays a vital role when considering all aspects of creating a profile for the purposes of aiding a criminal investigation. Whether this education is that of a clinical, research or field based experience, it can bring with it valuable knowledge that can assist an investigation. Copson (1995) and Gudjonsson Copson (1997) asked respondents whether they thought that the advice supplied by profilers proved to operationally useful and 82.6% replied that it was. Although, when asked if the advice opened new lines of enquiry, 82.1% replied that it did not and only in 2.7% of cases did the profile lead to the actual identification of the offender. The author also stated that offender profiling is not an exact science and this has been demonstrated from Canters first profile being accurate to around 76% through to the Association of Chief Police Officers guidelines that offender profiling should be treated with caution and should be considered as one of many tools that can provide advice and lines of inquiry for the investigative team to follow. So, if offender profiling, as it is commonly known, is not an exact science, could it be that this field of study is an art form? If it is considered an art, then as Pablo Picasso said, Art is the elimination of the unnecessary. Perhaps there is a parallel that can be drawn between that statement from the famous artist and the subject of criminal profiling, in that, through being able to eliminate certain aspects of an offenders personality and behaviour and consider the alternatives, useful information may present itself. Therefore, it is this authors opinion that profilers will continue to make valid and sustained contributions to criminal investigations, whether it is substantial will very much depend upon the profiler tasked with the job and the type of offence committed.
Monday, August 19, 2019
The Bermuda Triangle Essay -- Bermuda Triangle Phenomenon Essays
The Bermuda Triangle Off the southern tip of Florida lies a phenomenon called the Bermuda Triangle. Ships, planes, and over one thousand lives were lost in the Triangle without a trace. Theories have been put forth, but still no universally accepted explanation exists for the mystery that surrounds the Bermuda Triangle. The Bermuda Triangle covers almost 440,000 square miles of the Atlantic Ocean. An imaginary line that begins near Melbourne, Florida, extends south to Bermuda, and west to Puerto Rico before turning north to Florida, forms the Triangle. From 1972-1999, more than one hundred planes and ships have vanished into thin air. More than one thousand lives have been lost as well. One frightening aspect of this entire saga is that disappearances continue to occur at an alarming rate. A small part of the Bermuda Triangle lies in the Sargasso Sea. This sea is best known for its tall, thick, floating seaweed called Sargassum. The seaweed is thought to be a forest that once rested on an island in the Atlantic Ocean. According to legend, the island sank at a very quick pace, taking with it the forest and vegetation. One of the most notable disappearances is that of Flight 19. This was basically what started the craze. The flight consisted of five Navy TBM Avenger torpedo bomber planes. Mechanics had certified the planes fit for flight. Flight planes were checked thoroughly and appropriately filed with the proper authorities. There were no indications that this mission would be anything other than a routine experience for the crews of these aircraft. Even the weather was cooperation. The forecast predicted clear skies and calm winds. Flight 19 left the Fort Lauderdale Airport at 2:10 p.m. on December 5, 1945. At 3:40 p.m. Lieutenant Robert Cox noticed his radio begin to crackle. The transmission seemed to be directed to 'Powers.' The person identified himself as FT-28, the call sign for Flight 19. FT-28 radioed that both of his compasses were out, and he was trying to find land.(Kusch) At 4:26 p.m. Fort Everglades Rescue intercepted a transmission from FT-28. Immediately, the rescue team called several stations along the coast and asked them to turn on their radar and attempt to locate the lost flight. At 6:04 p.m. Lieutenant Taylor radioed his flight crew to tell them they were off course and needed to adjust their course to a more ea... ...d have been set up by flying saucer. Dr. Stanley Krippner believed a black hole in space, called a vortex, existed where planes and ships that entered the Triangle did not come out. (Kusch) In spite of today?s advanced technology, scientists are no closer to solving the mystery of the Bermuda Triangle. Only the stories exist to explain the loss of over one hundred planes and more than one thousand live to this ?Triangle of Terror.? The discovery of Flight 19 raised more questions than it answered. No matter how it?s looked at something does happen whether it has a scientific explanation or not in ?The Bermuda Triangle?. It can?t be denied that nothing happens there with all of the recorded tragedies on this area. The way to look at it is documentation is proof so it does exist. Works Cited Baumann, Elwood D. The Devil?s Triangle. Franklin Watts: New York, 1976 Berlitz, Charles. The Bermuda Triangle: An Incredible Saga of Unexplained Disappearances. Doubleday and Company, Inc.: New York, 1974 Burnvand, Jan Herold. ?Bermuda Triangle.? Encarta Encyclopedia. 1999 ed. Jeffrey, Kent Thomas. Triangle of Terror and Other Eerie Areas. Warner Books: New York, 1975
Sunday, August 18, 2019
False Hope in King Lear :: King Lear essays
False Hope in King Lear       Throughout Shakespeare's King Lear, there is a sense of renewal, or as L.C. Knights puts it, "affirmation in spite of everything," in the play. These affirmative actions are vividly seen throughout the play that is highly infused with evil, immorality and perverted values. These glimpses of hope seem to provide the reader with an underlying notion of human goodness that remains present, throughout the lurking presence of immorality and a lack of values. However, in the end it is questionable if these are true revelations, and if the affirmative notions are undermined, and thus less significant than the evil in which they are engulfed.       In Act I Scene I, the first glimmer of hope is revealed in the play at a time of madness, corruption and despair. In this scene, King Lear has created an environment of competition that promotes false flattery, among many other things as he divides his kingdom in relation to the amount of love his daughters profess to him. King Lear in his willfulness and arrogance does not see the error that he makes in equating love with reward, in this competitive environment.       Cordelia is the only one of the three sisters who cannot fully participate in the competition to gain her father's inheritance by engaging in false flattery. Instead of trying to out due her sisters, she merely describes her love in relation to their filial bond. Although her father views this as a degrading insult and banishes her, it is shown that through her filial bond, she loves her father with more depth and sincerity than her eager, self absorbed sisters. Cordelia emerges amid the moral depravity and social decay as one who is honest and true to her beliefs.       In banishing his daughter Cordelia from the kingdom and taking away her inheritance, King Lear is destroying the natural order of society. She is left abandoned by both her father and her presumed suitor, Burgundy. Yet Shakespeare rewards Cordelia's noble character with another suitor, the King of France. Despite all that has occurred in relation to being left destitute and friendless, France gladly accepts the estranged Cordelia as his bride to be and applauds her
Dred Scott Desicion :: American America History
Dred Scott Desicion The Dred Scott decision was an important ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that had a significant influence on the issue of slavery. The case was decided in 1857 and, in effect, declared that no black--free or slave--could claim United States citizenship. Slaves were viewed as property, and such had no individual right. Furthermore, the decision indicated that Congress could not prohibit slavery in United States territories. I believe that the decision was morally wrong and failed to recognize the rights of people to be free. In addition, the ruling had many political and social implications, aroused angry resentment in the North and led the nation a step closer to civil war. The decision was finally overridden after the Civil War with the introduction and passage of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. This amendment, adopted in 1868, extended citizenship to former slaves and gave them the benefit and protection of individual rights. (textbook, 295) The Dred Scott the decision involved a slave owned by U.S. Army surgeon, John Emerson. Emerson lived in Missouri, a state that permitted slavery. In 1834, Scott went to live with Emerson in Illinois, a state that prohibited slavery. They later lived in the Wisconsin Territory, where slavery was forbidden by the Missouri Compromise. In 1838, Scott returned to Missouri with Emerson. Emerson died in Missouri in 1843, and three years later, Scott sued the surgeon's widow for his freedom. Scott based his suit on the argument that his former residence in a free state and a free territory--Illinois and Wisconsin--made him a free man. A state circuit court ruled in Scott's favor, but the Missouri Supreme Court later reversed the decision. Meanwhile, Scott had become legally regarded as the property of John F. A. Sanford of New York. Because Sanford did not live in Missouri, Scott's lawyers were able to transfer the case to a federal court. This court ruled against Scott, and his lawyers then took the case to the Supreme Court. By a majority of 7 to 2, the Supreme Court ruled that Scott could not bring a suit in a federal court. Chief Justice Roger B. Taney, speaking for the majority, declared that Scott could not do so because blacks were not U.S. citizens. The court could have simply dismissed the case after ruling on Scott's citizenship. But there was a growing national desire for a ruling on the constitutionality of such laws as the Missouri Compromise. Dred Scott Desicion :: American America History Dred Scott Desicion The Dred Scott decision was an important ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that had a significant influence on the issue of slavery. The case was decided in 1857 and, in effect, declared that no black--free or slave--could claim United States citizenship. Slaves were viewed as property, and such had no individual right. Furthermore, the decision indicated that Congress could not prohibit slavery in United States territories. I believe that the decision was morally wrong and failed to recognize the rights of people to be free. In addition, the ruling had many political and social implications, aroused angry resentment in the North and led the nation a step closer to civil war. The decision was finally overridden after the Civil War with the introduction and passage of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. This amendment, adopted in 1868, extended citizenship to former slaves and gave them the benefit and protection of individual rights. (textbook, 295) The Dred Scott the decision involved a slave owned by U.S. Army surgeon, John Emerson. Emerson lived in Missouri, a state that permitted slavery. In 1834, Scott went to live with Emerson in Illinois, a state that prohibited slavery. They later lived in the Wisconsin Territory, where slavery was forbidden by the Missouri Compromise. In 1838, Scott returned to Missouri with Emerson. Emerson died in Missouri in 1843, and three years later, Scott sued the surgeon's widow for his freedom. Scott based his suit on the argument that his former residence in a free state and a free territory--Illinois and Wisconsin--made him a free man. A state circuit court ruled in Scott's favor, but the Missouri Supreme Court later reversed the decision. Meanwhile, Scott had become legally regarded as the property of John F. A. Sanford of New York. Because Sanford did not live in Missouri, Scott's lawyers were able to transfer the case to a federal court. This court ruled against Scott, and his lawyers then took the case to the Supreme Court. By a majority of 7 to 2, the Supreme Court ruled that Scott could not bring a suit in a federal court. Chief Justice Roger B. Taney, speaking for the majority, declared that Scott could not do so because blacks were not U.S. citizens. The court could have simply dismissed the case after ruling on Scott's citizenship. But there was a growing national desire for a ruling on the constitutionality of such laws as the Missouri Compromise.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
2nd Midterm Sample Exam
Sample Term Test 2A 1. A variable X has a distribution which is described by the density curve shown below: What proportion of values of X fall between 1 and 6? (A) 0. 550 (B) 0. 575 (C) 0. 600 (D) 0. 625 (E) 0. 650 2. Which of the following statements about a normal distribution is true? (A) The value of  µ must always be positive. (B) The value of ? must always be positive. (C) The shape of a normal distribution depends on the value of  µ. (D) The possible values of a standard normal variable range from ? 3. 49 to 3. 49. (E) The area under a normal curve depends on the value of ?. 3.The values in parentheses are the probabilities of each team winning their respective game. Game Game Game Game Game 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Finland (0. 43) USA (0. 28) Japan (0. 11) Denmark (0. 33) France (0. 18) vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. Germany (0. 57) Switzerland (0. 72) Canada (0. 89) Sweden (0. 67) Scotland (0. 82) 20. The outcome of interest is the set of winners of the ? ve games. How many outcomes are con tained in the sample space? (A) 5 (B) 10 (C) 25 (D) 32 (E) 64 21. In a sports game, the â€Å"favourite†is the team with the higher probability of winning and the â€Å"underdog†is the team who is less likely to win.What is the probability that at least one underdog wins? (A) 0. 93 (B) 0. 74 (C) 0. 80 (D) 0. 67 (E) 0. 59 22. A recently married couple plans to have two children. The outcome of interest is the gender of each of the two children. Consider the event that exactly one of the couple’s children will be a boy. Which of the following is the complement of this event? (A) two boys (B) two girls (C) one girl (D) at least one girl (E) zero or two girls 23. A manufacturer of automobile batteries claims that the distribution of battery lifetimes has a mean of 54 months and a variance of 36 months squared.Suppose a consumer group decides to check the claim by purchasing a sample of 50 of these batteries and subjecting them to tests to determine their lifetime. Assuming the manufacturer’s claim is true, what is the probability that the sample has a mean lifetime less than 52 months? (A) 0. 1292 (B) 0. 3707 (C) 0. 0091 (D) 0. 4909 (E) 0. 3483 24. A recycling plant compresses aluminum cans into bales. The weights of the bales are known to follow a normal distribution with standard deviation eight pounds. In a random sample of 64 bales, what is the probability that the sample mean di? ers from the population mean by no more than one pound? A) 0. 3413 (B) 0. 4772 (C) 0. 6826 (D) 0. 9544 (E) 0. 1587 25. The monthly mortgage payment for recent home buyers in Winnipeg has a mean of $732, and a standard deviation of $421. A random sample of 125 recent home buyers is selected. The approximate probability that their average monthly mortgage payment will be more than $782 is: (A) 0. 9082 (B) 0. 4522 (C) 0. 4082 (D) 0. 0478 (E) 0. 0918 26. Weights of pears in an orchard follow a normal distribution with mean 195 grams and standard deviation 40 grams.A random sample of ? ve pears is selected. What is the probability that the total weight of the pears is greater than one kilogram (i. . , 1,000 grams)? (A) 0. 2795 (B) 0. 3897 (C) 0. 2451 (D) 0. 3264 (E) 0. 4129 27. The fact that the sample mean does not tend to over- or underestimate the population mean makes the sample mean: (A) resistant. (B) unbiased. (C) e? cient. (D) a statistic. (E) a parameter. 28. A random variable X follows a uniform distribution with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. We take a random sample of size 100 from this distribution and calculate the sample mean X. The sampling distribution of X is: (A) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 173. B) uniform with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. (C) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 0173. (D) uniform with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 173. (E) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. 29. The sampling distribution of a statistic is : (A) the density function of the population from which the sample was selected. (B) the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population. (C) the distribution of the population from which the sample is drawn. D) approximately normally distributed if the sample is large enough, regardless of the shape of the population from which the sample is drawn.(E) all of the above. 30. Which of the following variables has a binomial distribution? (I) You repeatedly roll a fair die. X = number of rolls needed to observe the number 6 for the third time. (II) Tim Hortons is holding its annual â€Å"Roll Up the Rim to Win†promotion. Customers can check under the rim of a co? ee cup to see if they have won a prize. You buy one cup of co? ee from Tim Hortons each day for a week. X = number of times you win a prize during the week. III) A quality control inspector in a factory routinely examines samples of ? ber-optic cable being produced to check for defects. The inspector examines a 100-foot length of cable. X = number of defects found on the cable. (A) I only (B) II only (C) I and II only (D) II and III only (E) I, II, and III 31. There are four patients on the neo-natal ward of a local hospital who are monitored by two sta? members. Suppose the probability (at any one time) of a patient requiring attention by a sta? member is 0. 3. Assuming the patients behave independently, what is the probability at any one time that there will not be su? cient sta? o attend to all patients who need them? (A) 0. 0756 (B) 0. 1104 (C) 0. 0837 (D) 0. 0463 (E) 0. 2646 The next two questions (32 and 33) refer to the following: According to the Canadian Blood Services website, 9% of Canadians have type B blood. 32. If a sample of 8 donors is selected, what is the probability that less than two of them will have type B blood? (A) 0. 8424 (B) 0. 9711 (C) 0. 3721 (D) 0. 4703 (E) 0. 1576 33. Suppose we select a random sample of 175 blood donors and calculate the proportion p ? of individuals with type B blood. The standard deviation of p is: ? (A) 0. 0216 (B) 0. 0358 (C) 0. 0417 (D) 0. 0598 (E) 0. 0647The next two questions (34 and 35) refer to the following: It is known that 53% of students at a large university are female and 47% are male. 34. If we take a random sample of 12 students at the university, what is the probability that exactly seven of them are female? (A) 0. 1734 (B) 0. 1834 (C) 0. 1934 (D) 0. 2034 (E) 0. 2134 35. If we take a random sample of 200 students at the university, what is the approximate probability that less than half of them are male? (A) 0. 7291 (B) 0. 8023 (C) 0. 7852 (D) 0. 8508 (E) 0. 7517 Sample Term Test 2B 1. A random variable X is described by the density curve shown below: The probability of P (3 ?X ? 6) is equal to: (A) 0. 55 (B) 0. 45 (C) 0. 375 (D) 0. 40 (E) 0. 60 2. A random variable X follows a uniform distribution on the interval from 10 to 15. What proportion of values of X are greater than 13. 2? (A) 0. 18 (B) 0. 88 (C) 0. 36 (D) 0. 12 (E) 0. 28 3. Which of the following statements about a normal distribution is true? (A) The mean of a normal distribution must always be greater than zero. (B) For a standard normal distribution, P (Z < z) = P (Z > ? z) for any value z. (C) The height of a normal density curve must always be equal to one. (D) All values must fall within three standard deviations of the mean. E) The standard deviation of a normal distribution must always be greater than one. 4. A variable X follows a normal distribution with mean 10 and standard deviation 5. Another variable Y follows a normal distribution with mean 25 and standard deviation the 10. The maximum height of the density curve for X is (i) maximum height for the density curve for Y, and the area under the density curve for X is (ii) the area under the density curve for Y. (A) (i) greater than, (ii) less than (B) (i) less than, (ii) greater than (C) (i) equa l to, (ii) equal to (D) (i) greater than, (ii) equal to (E) (i) less than, (ii) less than 5.Weights of apples grown in an orchard are known to follow a normal distribution with mean 160 grams. It is known that approximately 99. 7% of apples have weights between 124 and 196 grams. What is the standard deviation of weights of all apples grown in the orchard? (A) 9 grams (B) 12 grams (C) 18 grams (D) 24 grams (E) 36 grams 6. A variable Z has a standard normal distribution. What is the value b such that P (b ? Z ? 0. 36) = 0. 2470? (A) ? 1. 22 (B) ? 0. 68 (C) ? 0. 27 (D) ? 0. 39 (E) ? 0. 55 The next two questions (7 to 8) refer to the following: Percentage grades in a large geography class follow a normal distribution with mean 67. and standard deviation 12. 5. 7. What proportion of students in the class receive percentage grades between 60 and 70? (A) 0. 2650 (B) 0. 2750 (C) 0. 2850 (D) 0. 2950 (E) 0. 3050 8. The professor decides to assign a grade of A+ to the students with the top 8% of the grades, and a grade of A to the next best 12%. What is the minimum percentage a student needs to earn a grade of A? (A) 77 (B) 78 (C) 79 (D) 80 (E) 81 9. The contents of bottles of water follow a normal distribution with mean  µ and standard deviation 4 ml. What proportion of bottles have ? ll volumes within 1 ml of the mean? (A) 0. 1974 (B) 0. 987 (C) 0. 6826 (D) 0. 4013 (E) unable to calculate without the value of  µ 10. A candy company manufactures hard candies in ? ve di? erent ? avours, according to the following probability distribution, where k is some constant: Cherry Root Beer Flavour Probability 0. 21 k Strawberry Orange Peppermint 0. 27 k 0. 14 If you select a candy at random, what is the probability that it will be fruit-? avoured? (A) 0. 48 (B) 0. 67 (C) 0. 68 (D) 0. 72 (E) 0. 86 11. Event A has probability of 0. 4 to occur and Event B has a probability of 0. 5 to occur. Their union (A or B) has a probability of 0. 7 to occur.Then: (A) A and B are mutually e xclusive. (B) A and B are not mutually exclusive. (C) A and B are independent. (D) A and B are dependent. (E) both (B) and (C). 12. You have two unfair coins. On any given ? ip, the ? rst coin has a 40% chance of landing on Heads and the second coin has a 25% chance of landing on Heads. If you ? ip both coins, what is the probability that at least one of them lands on Heads? (A) 0. 10 (B) 0. 45 (C) 0. 55 (D) 0. 65 (E) 0. 90 13. A fair six-sided die will be rolled. De? ne A to be the event that an even number is rolled and de? ne B to be the event that a prime number is rolled.Which of the following events is the intersection of A and B? (A) {2} (B) {2, 3, 5} (C) {2, 3, 4, 5, 6} (D) {3, 5} (E) {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 14. Suppose it is known that 61% of Winnipeg adults read the Winnipeg Free Press, 29% read the Winnipeg Sun and 18% read both newspapers. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult in Winnipeg reads only one of the two papers (but not both)? Hint: Draw a Venn diag ram. (A) 0. 54 (B) 0. 50 (C) 0. 45 (D) 0. 72 (E) 0. 47 The next two questions (15 and 16) refer to the following: A hockey players compiles the following facts: †¢ Her team wins (W) 60% of their games. She scores a goal (G) in 30% of her games. †¢ She gets a penalty (P) in 40% of her games. †¢ In 38% of her games, her team wins and she scores a goal. †¢ In 24% of her games, her team wins and she gets a penalty. †¢ in 15% of her games, she scores a goal and gets a penalty. 15. In any given game, what is the probability that the player scores a goal or gets a penalty? (A) 0. 85 (B) 0. 55 (C) 0. 70 (D) 0. 65 (E) 0. 58 16. Which of the following statements is true? (A) W and G are independent. (B) G and P are mutually exclusive (disjoint). (C) W and P are independent. (D) W and G are mutually exclusive (disjoint). (E) G and P are independent. 7. Weights of oranges sold at a supermarket follow a normal distribution with mean 0. 22 pounds and standard deviation 0. 04 pounds. If you randomly select four oranges, what is the probability that their total weight is less than 1 pound? (A) 0. 9719 (B) 0. 8508 (C) 0. 9332 (D) 0. 7967 (E) 0. 8340 The next two questions (18 and 19) refer to the following: The time X taken by a cashier in a grocery store express lane follows a normal distribution with mean 90 seconds and standard deviation 20 seconds. 18. What is the ? rst quartile (Q1) of the distribution of X? (A) 73. 8 seconds (B) 85. 0 seconds (C) 69. 4 seconds (D) 81. seconds (E) 76. 6 seconds 19. What is the probability that the average service time for the next three customers is between 80 and 100 seconds? (Assume the next three customers can be considered a simple random sample. ) (A) 0. 6156 (B) 0. 4893 (C) 0. 7212 (D) 0. 5559 (E) impossible to calculate with the information given The next two questions (20 and 21) refer to the following: The amount X spent (in $) by customers in the grocery store express lane follow some right-skewed distri bution with mean $24 and standard deviation $15. 20. What is the probability that the average amount spent by the next three customers is more than $20? Assume the next three customers can be considered a simple random sample. ) (A) 0. 4619 (B) 0. 6772 (C) 0. 8186 (D) 0. 7673 (E) impossible to calculate with the information given 21. What is the probability that the next 40 customers spend less than $1,000 in total? (Assume the next 40 customers can be considered a simple random sample). (A) 0. 5199 (B) 0. 6064 (C) 0. 6628 (D) 0. 5784 (E) 0. 6331 22.The distribution of weights of chocolate bars produced by a certain machine is normal with mean 253 grams and standard deviation 3 grams. A sample of ? ve of these chocolate bars is selected. There is only a 2. % chance that the average weight of the sample will be below: (A) 250. 37 grams. (B) 254. 10 grams. (C) 252. 63 grams. (D) 251. 54 grams. (E) 249. 82 grams. The next two questions (23 and 24) refer to the following: A bimodal prob ability distribution is one with two distinct peaks. A random variable X follows a bimodal distribution with mean 15 and standard deviation 4, as shown below: 23. Suppose that you take a random sample of 10,000 observations from the population above and make a histogram. You expect the histogram to be: (A) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 004. (B) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (C) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (D) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. (E) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. 24. Suppose that you take 10,000 random samples of 10,000 observations from the population above and that for each sample, the mean x is calculated. A histogram of resulting x’s ? ? would be:(A) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 0004. B) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (C) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (D) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. (E) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. 25. The Central Limit Theorem states that: ? (A) when n gets large, the standard deviation of the sample mean X gets closer and v closer to ? / n. (B) regardless of the population distribution of a random variable X, when n gets large, ? the sampling distribution of X is approximately normal. C) if a random variable X follows a normal distribution, then when n gets large, the ? sampling distribution of X is exactly normal. ? (D) when n gets large, the sample mean X gets closer and closer to the population mean  µ. ? (E) when n gets large, the sample mean X becomes an unbiased estimator of the population mean  µ. 26. Which of the following variables has a binomial distribution? (A) You roll ? ve fair dice, each with face values of 1 through 6. X = total number of dots facing up on the ? ve dice. (B) An airplane carrying 100 passengers has two emergency exits, one at the front of the plane and one at the back.The airplane makes an emergency landing. X = number of people who leave the plane through the front exit. (C) A paper boy delivers the newspaper to every house on your block. X = number of houses that get their newspaper on time tomorrow morning. (D) You repeatedly ? ip two quarters simultaneously until both quarters land on Heads. X = number of ? ips required for both quarters to land on Heads. (E) A student randomly guesses the answer to each of the 40 multiple choice questions on this exam. X = number of multiple choice questions the student gets correct. 27. The probability that a certain machine will produce a defective item is 1/4.If a random sample of six items is taken from the output of this machine, what is the probability that there will be at least ? ve defectives in the sample? (A) 1 4096 (B) 3 4096 (C) 4 4096 (D) 18 4096 (E) 19 4096 28. Event A occurs with probability 0. 12. Event B occurs with probability 0. 88. If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) events, then (A) P(A and B) = 0. 11 (B) P(A and B) = 0. 00 (C) P(A or B) = 1. 00 (D) P(A or B) = 0. 11 (E) both (B) and (C) are correct 29. A random variable X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p. If the mean and the variance of X are 3. 6 and 2. 2 respectively, then the values of the parameters n and p are, respectively: (A) 6 and 0. 6. (B) 18 and 0. 2. (C) 24 and 0. 15. (D) 12 and 0. 3. (E) 12 and 0. 4. 30. A student driving to university must pass through seven sets of tra? c lights. Suppose it is known that each set of tra? c lights are red 35% of the time and that all lights function independently. What is the probability that the student will have to stop at two or more sets of lights on her to university? (A) 0. 6828 (B) 0. 2985 (C) 0. 4893 (D) 0. 7662 (E) 0. 5997 The next three questions (31 and 33) refer to the following: We have a small deck of ten cards.Five of the cards are red, three are blue and two are green. We randomly select four cards from the deck with replacement. That is, after we select a card and record the colour, we put the card back in the deck and thoroughly shu? e them before we select another card. 31. Let X be the number of blue cards that are selected. The distribution of X is: (A) binomial with parameters n = 4 and p = 0. 1. (B) binomial with parameters n = 10 and p = 0. 3. (C) binomial with parameters n = 10 and p = 0. 4. (D) binomial with parameters n = 4 and p = 0. 3. (E) normal with parameters  µ = 1. 2 and ? = 0. 92. 32. Let A be the event that the ? st selected card is the only red card in our four selections. Which of the following events is mutually exclusive (disjoint) from the event A? (A) Second card selected is blue. (B) No green cards are selected. (C) Third selected card is the on ly green. (D) Same number of red and blue cards are selected. (E) Same number of blue and green cards are selected. 33. What is the probability that the ? rst two selected cards are the same colour? (A) 0. 38 (B) 0. 25 (C) 0. 29 (D) 0. 33 (E) 0. 41 The next two questions (34 and 35) refer to the following: Suppose it is known that 8% of males are colour blind. 4. In a random sample of 20 males, what is the probability that exactly 3 of them are colour blind? (A) 0. 1212 (B) 0. 1313 (C) 0. 1414 (D) 0. 1515 (E) 0. 1616 35. In a random sample of 500 males, what is the approximate probability that at least 10% of them are colour blind? (A) 0. 03 (B) 0. 04 (C) 0. 05 (D) 0. 06 (E) 0. 07 Answers Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Term Test 2A A B A A B B B A B E A E C E B D C B D D C E C C E B B A D B C A A E B Term Test 2B A C B D B C E B A B E C A A B C C E A E C A D C B E E E D D D E A C C
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)